Читать книгу China Rising - Alexander Scipio - Страница 10

Schiphol Airport, Netherlands

Thursday, 11 April, 07:00 hours GMT (09:00 Local)

President Vladimir Scharanov of the Russian Federation finished speaking, nodded to his foreign minister, and then scanned the faces of the other three men before sitting at the head of the conference table.

Lifting his glass, Scharanov drank a slow sip of ice water. Placing the glass back on the table, he sat back in the chair and waited for a response.

The Polish foreign minister, Georg Rudniski, looked around the table at the group informally assembled in a conference room at the Schiphol Airport Executive Facilities, where they had arranged to meet quietly and without fanfare. Joining Rudniski in listening to the Russian proposal were Hans Dieter, the foreign minister of Germany, and Valclav Svoboda, foreign minister of the Czech Republic. The three men looked thoughtfully at one another and returned their eyes to the Russian president sitting before them.

The invitation had been from the Russian foreign minister. The presence of the Russian president was a complete surprise. Normally a meeting with a nation’s president called for similar rank from the other governments. That Scharanov obviously had planned to lead this meeting all along, without his peers in attendance, was interesting, and a bit discomfiting.

“Here’s the fact of the matter,” Rudniski said, breaking the silence. He looked at his peers who refocused their gazes on him rather than Scharanov. Rudniski nodded toward the now-quiet Russian, “Russia isn’t going away. We can work with them and make ourselves economically vital, enriching our nations, or we can remain in limbo as now. And broke as now. And funding the Mediterranean countries as now.”

“He’s right, you know,” Svoboda agreed after a moment’s thought. “Russia needs workers. As President Scharanov has said, Russia has enormous natural resources they cannot exploit. We have enormous numbers of workers without jobs.” He nodded to the German. “Germany has workers without sufficient jobs. In the Czech Republic– and in Poland, we also have many hard workers and not enough jobs. We have the opportunity here to employ hundreds of thousands of workers. Those jobs will bring needed capital to our nations, which will create more jobs – and a future that we do not have now. Our countries – our peoples – are hard workers. We are not France or Spain. We most certainly are not Italy or Portugal.” Svoboda paused, and then finished with disdain, “Or Greece.”

The men at the table remained thoughtful, perhaps skeptical. Dieter looked at Scharanov. “Your suggestion – your offer – requires that we abandon the euro. Why?”

Scharanov replied bluntly, “Russia sees no need to employ hundreds of thousands of your citizens, pay them European wages and salaries, reinvigorate your economies, economies with people who actually want to work, to partner with you… and then have the money drained-off by the Mediterranean countries who don’t work, won’t work and demand others take care of them. Doing so will help none of us. It will not create new jobs for any of us. It will not create consumers. It will not create a future.”

Svoboda nodded impatiently, asking, “Mr. President, let’s not pretend that this arrangement will invigorate only our economies; yours will gain from it, as well. The question remains: What if we send workers, make this economic treaty, exit the euro, and once Russia has begun exploiting these resources, you throw us out and continue on your own. You won’t need us and will have destroyed the European economy.”

Scharanov looked at the man, trying to understand if this were rhetorical or a true concern. Finally, he decided it was the latter. Leaning back, he studied the men around the table, men who seemed truly to be looking forward, hungry for a better future for themselves and their people.

“If I may?” Scharanov replied.

“Of course,” replied Svoboda, nodding.

“The European economy is destroyed already. You may have noticed. Your three nations – Poland, Germany and Czech Republic – are the only European nations working, producing. You can either continue working and sending your money to Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland…. And soon, Britain, and perhaps even France…. and not raise your own standards of living, or you can accept this offer from Russia, employ hundreds of thousands of your hard workers at good wages and salaries, gain the tax revenues from their work and raise your standards of living. It really is that simple.”

“But, again, what if Russia convinces us to collapse the euro and then sends us home? What if your goal is destruction and take-over and not the benign future you tell us?” asked Dieter. The Cold War was not that far in the past.

“Let me ask you this,” said Scharanov after a pause, “Once Russia, with the work of your people, begins exploiting resources, once it begins mining iron and coal and uranium, drilling oil and natural gas, lumbering millions of square kilometers of timber, and building roads to get to these resources and railroads to get them to market, once we – and you – have built factories and offices and schools and roads and cities for the workers and their families to live and prosper as this work is performed – and it is many years of work, have no doubt – once we have begun that, begun work that will occupy millions of workers for decades, how will we send you home? Who will fill up these cities, factories, schools?

“We have no children to take your jobs. Everyone in Russia – and in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic, by the way - who can work these jobs in the twenty years ahead already has been born. You can work these jobs now. You can provide for your families now. You can provide for your futures now. Our futures now. And together, our nations can move forward.” He paused to take a drink from his glass. “We, too, you of course realize, are a European nation. We, too, want to prosper – and to survive.

“Or individually we can stagnate or move backward.” Scharanov set the glass down and folded his arms before him on the table. “None of our countries can exist as we are now… for very much longer. I think we all understand this, do we not?”

Rudniski listened attentively, as did the others. He thought a moment, not yet convinced but understanding the logic. Still, the Russians were age-old enemies of his people. He had to be sure.

“Yes. We can do this,” Rudniski said, nodding.” The question on the table now is this: Will we do this, or will you find a way to control us?” He had no reason to trust Russia or any Russians. But the world seemed to have arrived at a place in which it might make more sense to trust former conquerors than their current “friends”’ in the Mediterranean. At least if they wanted a prosperous - or even a non-bankrupt – future.

“Let me ask you this,” replied Scharanov. “Has there ever been a nation in which occupied workers - the fear you seem to have – have been as productive as free workers?”

The men shook their heads.

Scharanov continued. “Has there ever been a nation of occupied workers – slaves, if you want to call them-”

“-Like East Germany or our nations when we were satellites of the USSR, you mean?” interrupted the Czech Minister gruffly.

“Yes, that is what I mean,” replied Scharanov calmly. “Did you not notice how badly we all fared – your workers as well as ours?”

“Of course,” replied the Czech in irritation.

“And that the USSR wound up destroying itself?”

“Yes.”

“Why would Russia want to do that again? The Western wars for territory and dominance are over. The wars for ideology are over. Socialism failed us – and it is failing you.”

Scharanov paused, letting that sink in for a moment, and then continued. “You may have noticed that Russia has become capitalist and our free market is expanding and our standard of living rising. We cannot keep that up without more jobs – many more jobs. China, too, is capitalist now. They, too, need many more jobs. Making lives better for our citizens is our job now – all of our jobs – yours and ours. Or our people will overthrow us. All of us.

“We can move forward together – or we will not move forward,” Scharanov continued after a moment. “We will work together – or not. Russia has enormous natural resources. You have many hard workers in need of jobs. Together, we can exploit these resources, supply our nations with energy, minerals, steel, timber, transportation, housing, and progress – or not. It is up to you. We - together - have the workers needed to exploit these resources and manufacture and produce goods and services to grow. Alone, none of us have both the resources and the workers to exploit them.”

He looked around again at the men. One of them nodded. The others sat silently but seemed not to disagree.

“You say the children who will take our jobs – grow into them – whatever – already have been born, yes?” Rudniski asked.

“Yes.”

“Then what? We – all our nations, yours, too – have been having fewer and fewer children for 60 years. We all are dying. This is why we are talking – none of us have the workers we need to grow. All of us will grow or die. There is no third way. So we take this opportunity, we employ tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands. Then what? In twenty years when we are dead and our few children are our age and they, too, have no children… what happens then?”

The others all looked to Scharanov for his answer. He looked back at each in turn.

“What do we do then?” Rudniski repeated, almost angrily. He, and the others, knew that the decisions of their countrymen – and of they, themselves – had resulted in this demographic catastrophe. And they neither liked it nor had any idea what to do about it.

Scharanov looked at the men for a long moment and then replied. “Here is our offer: We will pay one million male workers from your three nations US$100,000 annually for five years. Guaranteed. We will provide housing and schools; good housing and good schools. In fact, your workers will build them – and they will build the cities in which they are located. We also want you to bring your best teachers for the schools you will build and that your children will attend. You will build these houses, these schools, these cities, and the roads to the resources these workers will mine and harvest.

“We will pay each worker with a wife an annual US$40,000 for her to remain at home and raise her children. We will pay US$10,000 for each baby – up to four per family - born in marriage to each couple, and continue to pay US$5,000 annually for each child that lives, remains in school and gets good grades, and whose parents remain married to each other, until that child graduates high school. We will pay for the university of their choice – as long as the course of study is useful.”

Scharanov paused and then continued. “We are aware,” he said looking around the room, “that we – all of us - have pretended for too long that we could have a future without having children. We cannot. Those who want to work, who want to prosper, who want to have a family and see their work and culture and prosperity continue – come, work.

“That is the deal. Take it or leave it. But decide. We need one million workers from your countries. Now. This year. You have that many workers not currently working and costing your treasuries welfare money. We need workers. We want families. We want a future.” He paused and looked individually at each of the men. “Do you?”

The men sat, thinking, digesting what they had just been told.

“Where will you get this money?” Dieter finally asked, irritated that Russia was offering something for which he knew Russia could not pay. “Your accounts do not support these outlays and one million workers cannot possibly extract and sell enough resources in the first year to pay these wages. By my calculations, that is nearly a trillion dollars you say you will spend in the first five years, but it will be years until these resources and goods can begin to provide the revenue necessary to pay our workers.”

The Russian looked at him for a long moment, and then nodded. He stood abruptly and walked over to a global airline route map hung as decoration and advertising on the wall of the conference room.

He glanced back at the assembled men, looking intently into the eyes of each man there. Some were skeptical. Some looked hopeful, as though there might actually be an answer to the serious – and true – question the German foreign minister had just asked. Where was this money coming from?

President Scharanov pointed at the map of Siberia.

“There are enormous untapped resources in this land. Oil, uranium, coal, natural gas, timber, water. Plenty – and more – to pay these wages.”

“Yes?” replied the German Minister, not really understanding what the Russian was getting at. “But until those resources are exploited? How will you pay our workers until then?”

Picking-up a marker from the cabinet next to the map, the Russian uncapped it, placed the point of the marker at the bottom of the Kara Sea and slashed an “S”- shaped line, following the Ob River from the bottom of Ob Bay, and then down to the intersection of Mongolia, Kazakhstan and China. He put down the marker and turned to the assembled Foreign Ministers.

Scharanov looked at the expectant men for a long moment and then said bluntly, “We have sold the land east of this line to China.”

The men gasped and stared hard at map, and then at the Russian.

“We cannot exploit these resources alone, not on either side of that line,” Scharanov said bluntly. “We can exploit those west of that line – with your help and workers, but not without. China needs room to grow. She can – and will – exploit those resources to the east. We both gain. As do you, here,” he said as he swept his hand across the table.

“You sold Siberia…?” began the Czech, “For…?”

“For one trillion American dollars in US government bonds and a percentage of market prices for resources China extracts for one hundred years.” Scharanov looked directly at Dieter. “That is how we will pay these workers.”

Recovering first, Rudniski asked, “And, China? China will exploit their new resources, as well? With their own millions of workers?”

“Yes.”

“So standards of living will rise in Asia and Europe – well, within our nations, anyway, and those with whom we see additional trade, yes?” asked Svoboda.

“What of America?” asked Dieter.

“What of her?” asked Scharanov.

“What does she say? I have heard nothing from her new president or media. How are they keeping this quiet, and what have they said to you?

“They do not know.”

“What?” Svoboda asked in disbelief, putting voice to the expression on the faces of the others. “You expect us to believe you are telling us this but have not told America?”

Scharanov looked hard at the man for a long moment before answering bluntly. “Sir, you can believe what you want, but, no, we have not told America. Why would it be in our best interests to do so prior to discussing it with you, our neighbors, those we hope will provide workers to better all of our futures? America would tell us we can’t do this. We – China and Russia – of course, would tell her it is none of her business, but when has that stopped American meddling?”

“So,” commented Dieter, “Russia – and we, evidently – are going to use the interest on the American debt held by China and paid by American taxpayers, that China evidently has just used to buy Siberia, to pay European workers to extract minerals and resources to compete with America, and we are going to raise our standard of living at the same time, yes?”

The Russian did not answer the rhetorical question, so Dieter continued.

“And what, do you think, will be the reaction of America to the vast increase in raw materials and, one assumes, manufactured goods, in Europe and Asia, and to the increased energy needs causing us to use more global energy, driving up demand and raising American prices?”

Scharanov said, “America may have to grow-up and begin exploiting her own energy rather than preying off the rest of the world.”

“That would be interesting,” commented the German, smiling slightly.

“America could be left behind…” commented the Czech Minister.

“America never is behind – for long,” replied Dieter. “Nor do we want them behind. Be honest with yourselves, each of you. What has been invented that has improved our lives in the past 50 years that did not come from America? How will that change? They may not like what they learn. They may not like what they find in talking to us once this plan moves forward,” he looked over to the Russian and nodded slightly, “but America will recover and react. Frankly, I can’t see this plan not helping the entire civilized world, including America. We all need America to recover and begin paying-off this debt.” He paused, thinking, and then finished, “Or how will they ever pay off the debt of which each of us owns a part?”

The men thought this over, intrigued at the game being played by China and Russia without knowledge of America.

Scharanov listened to the discussion and then answered the men. “Two answers. One: America will and must pay-off this debt for us all to move forward, and for them to get their economy back on-track, which we all need. China will ensure the Americans understand this.

“Two: You asked a moment ago about energy prices. It is not clear that world energy prices will rise. China hired the best, most efficient American oil producers to begin drilling and exploiting the West Siberian Basin. They will manage Chinese oil workers to begin exploitation of these fields. Once those fields are producing, they will look elsewhere within Siberia, surely there is yet more oil than we know about. They will be well-paid. We – with your help – will be improving the current oil fields in the western half of the Siberian basin, the oilfields north of Kazakhstan, and exploring for more.” Scharanov paused to watch the reactions on the men.

“The new American president,” he continued after a moment and a sip of water, “already is encouraging American oil production, and providing permits to expand their domestic exploration and supply. Once America learns what is happening, she will accelerate the extraction of her own oil resources, which seem to be as large as Arabia’s, and which will keep world energy prices low. In fact, the energy needs of China and Russia will grow with this development,” he said, swinging his arm back across the map, “so we will need to keep our prices – and world prices – low. Russia, China and India need oil. As we use more, America will have to begin using her own.”

He paused and looked at the men. These were hard decisions that needed to be made for reasons of economic existence. The men before him seemed to begin to understand the stakes.

Scharanov continued. “China has hired the largest American railroad company to build thousands of kilometers of railroad, and is employing tens of thousands of American workers to build mining, smelting, drilling, refining and manufacturing facilities for those workers. That is tens of billions of dollars. Neither China - nor we when we employ your workers - will tax these earnings. All taxes will be withheld from their paychecks according to the law of the worker’s home nation, and paid directly to their tax authority. We are doing everything we can to put all of us back to work.”

Pausing and shaking his head, Scharanov continued, “Half of the Americans, it seems, do not understand that successful American workers are the only way forward for the entire world. We think these contracts, these energy resources, will generate a new spirit of work in America. You know that America now sends over $350 billion dollars to the Middle East for oil they could be drilling domestically, leaving that money in America, and they seem to think this is a rational course?” He shook his head in disgust.

Dieter bluntly changed the subject, asking, “Speaking of which, what of the danger that our workers won’t take these jobs, that our German – and Czech and Polish – workers won’t work as needed in these rather hard industries? Then what will you do, hire our lower classes? And what of the rest of Europe?”

“We will hire European workers. If not from Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic, we will expand our search to Scandinavia.”

Scharanov paused and looked at the men thoughtfully for a long moment before turning his gaze on German Foreign Minister Dieter. “Mr. Foreign Minister, let me answer your last question: ‘What about Europe?’ What we are discussing, Germany, Poland, and the Czechs deciding to take a step in a distinctly new direction, partly as a result of the drain on Germany’s resources by the Mediterranean countries, a step that will lead to a brighter future for Germany, for Central Europe, for Russia and for the world, is not unprecedented, am I correct?”

Dieter looked at him, puzzled, for a long moment, and then a light dawned in his eyes just as Scharanov continued speaking.

“In the early 16^th Century, Germany – also tired of her purse being drained by Italy – interesting how some things never change, is it not? Anyway, German princes resented this and so supported the beginning of the Protestant Reformation, which they easily could have killed in its infancy by turning-over Luther to the Italians. That Reformation gave the world the high standard of living enjoyed across the West today – Europe, America, Japan, to some extent Russia… and also a quickly-progressing China. Germany moved the world forward by ceasing to support Italy’s corruption and profligacy.”

Scharanov paused. The look on the faces of the men before them was deeply thoughtful. Dieter nodded a bit, almost to himself. Scharanov said quietly, “History can repeat here… if Germany again is ready to reach for a different future.”

The assembled men considered Scharanov’s point for a long moment, looking at one-another, gears turning in their minds.

Continuing, Scharanov said, “The point here, especially with the bonus for children and families, is to ensure a European future economy – and society. Perhaps many of your citizens don’t care about the future of the European past, but we, too, are Europeans. And we care about that future.”

He paused and sipped from a glass of water, and said, “Our goal here, ministers, the reason we are interested in improving our economies and building a successful future, is that future, not the 7th Century. We can reach that future, but not on our own. Your countries, obviously, cannot, either. We will hire Europeans. We have no room for other cultures or modes of law, or distractions of pre-Industrial cultures or beliefs. The world needs no more of their children – they have more than enough already, and they seem to need no encouragement to have even more, no matter in what level of poverty their rulers leave them. They never educate them. They provide no cultural or economic advancement for them. They only breed… and then kill. In Chechnya, Madrid, London, New York, Bali, Mumbai and, of course, Israel. Our national goal is to advance, to provide our people a better life, not one rooted a thousand years in the past. We will have no jobs for them,” he repeated.

“Be that as it may,” replied the German, “a large part of our world is not what we Europeans would call ‘civilized,’ is it?”

“No, it is not.”

“What, Mr. Scharanov, do we plan to do about that?”

The Russian noted the use of the word, “we,” and smiled inwardly. He had won.

“Gentlemen,” Scharanov said, turning to his briefcase and picking it up, “I must return to Moscow. I am quite sure you can finish here without me.” He nodded his head politely to his foreign minister, and to each of the men, and then walked from the room.