Читать книгу China Rising - Alexander Scipio - Страница 9

Washington, DC

Wednesday, 10 April, 21:00 hours GMT (17:00 Local)

Premier Fang Wi Long, the leader of the most populous nation on earth, the People’s Republic of China, looked at the men seated at the large conference table.

At Fang’s request, China’s Minister of the Interior, Mr. Qiang en Lai, had assembled from around the world the senior executives of those companies that manufactured cars and light trucks in the United States. In attendance were the Chairmen of Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, KIA, Nissan and Ford, and the heads of their American manufacturing operations.

Joining these men were the CEO of the largest steel manufacturer in South Korea, the president of General Electric, the primary manufacturer American railroad locomotives, along with the president of his railroad division, and the president of BNSF, by mileage the largest private-sector railway in the world.

Fang would meet with Michael Hopkins, the new American president, for a working dinner tomorrow evening. This afternoon he and Qiang were conducting business for his country. Big business.

The men were gathered at the Ronald Reagan International Airport in a conference room in the executive club of a major airline, a convenient and professional environment allowing each to arrive, meet and depart quickly and quietly.

For each of these men, Washington was a regular stop to meet with legislators and senior members of government departments having an impact on their businesses. Because this was a regular destination of the men, rumors were unlikely to arise.

They sat around a large conference table. Before them were coffee, water, paper and pens supplied by the airline.

Fang looked at his watch. It was 5:00 PM. The chance of word leaking-out prior to tomorrow was very small. He nodded to his Interior Minister to begin.

“Gentlemen. Thank you for attending,” Minister Qiang began. “We would like to reach many large business agreements with you today.”

The seated men betrayed no surprises. That much had been in the formal invitations causing them to attend. They were willing to listen.

Busy though these men were running multi-billion-dollar companies, the invitation, which included a hint at the size of the contracts to be let, caused them to attend. Hundreds of millions of dollars was a good number. Billions was even better.

“Before each of you are 3x5 note cards and a pen,” Qiang continued. “I would like to ask those of you in the automobile business please to write on the first card your estimate of your American-based manufacturing two-shift capacity, which I understand is your current production cycle, in annual units, aggregate of cars and light trucks – the vehicles that individuals, construction workers and families would purchase. This is public knowledge, but I would like to be sure we are working with the same – correct – numbers rather than what may be gleaned from your publicity departments, which we already have.”

The president of Ford Motor Company spoke. “Mr. Minister, why would we do this? As you said, you already have this information. Any deviance from published information likely would be confidential.”

“Mr. Jackson, if you would prefer to use published numbers that is your choice. I simply am asking for your agreement that they are correct,” Qiang replied.

Jackson thought about that but seemed unconvinced. He did not join his professional colleagues in writing numbers on note cards.

Fang noticed this and, preferring not to waste time, decided to make his interest evident. He nodded to himself and then turned toward the Korean steel man. “Mr. Park? We would like to order enough steel rail and fittings to double-track, with the normal number of sidings, approximately 10,000 kilometers of heavy, open-country, high-speed freight rail. So, 20,000 kilometers of rail, in all.”

Before Mr. Park Chong Ho could respond, Fang turned to the president of BNSF. “Mr. Board, we would like to hire your company to map, survey, grade and lay that track and necessary infrastructure, beginning immediately, with as many of your own employees as you see fit to bring along, and their families, the remaining to be supplied by China. We anticipate the track-laying project to require five years to complete. Further, we would like your company to maintain that track for the foreseeable future.”

The premier nodded to Minister Qiang, who handed a single sheet of paper to Board and said, “Mr. Board, this is the arrangement we recently made with an American oil company, an offer they have accepted. You will see it covers housing, schools, vacations and advanced education at no cost to your people. We would like to offer you the same for your workers and their families, as many as you need to complete this job on the schedule we are discussing, and to maintain it over time.”

Bob Board took the paper from the outstretched hand and quickly read it. Finishing, he looked up, intrigued. This was serious stuff.

Unable to control his surprise at what seemed a firm order for millions of metric tons of his product, Mr. Park’s jaw dropped open for a moment before he recovered his composure. “How soon?”

“We would like you, Mr. Park,” said Qiang, “to begin delivery within 60 days, and also would like to ensure you do not lose additional business by moving all your capacity to us. Have you enough capacity to deliver this entire order within 60 months? That is our schedule. Or do you need to build additional capacity to ensure against the loss of your current customers? And, if so, can you bring that new capacity online quickly enough to fill our needs and those of your current customers?”

Without waiting for Park’s answer, Qiang turned to the head of BNSF. “Mr. Board? Can you lay that track within five years?”

“Yes,” replied Board. He looked at the Korean, who obviously was running numbers and thinking high-level manufacturing and delivery logistics. Board looked back to Fang, a skeptical look on his face, and then over at Minister Qiang. “If this is real, and if you can indeed get the rail – and the timber, though we would prefer concrete cross-ties. If our engineers can start within thirty days and you have enough workers. Have you?”

“Yes,” replied Qiang. “We are organizing and planning right now the necessary timbering and concrete to provide you all the resources you will need for ties, stations, crossings, etc. Regarding the rail…” He turned to Park.

“Sir?” Qiang queried.

The automakers watched and listened, intrigued.

Park thought a moment and replied, “We can deliver this within your timeframe. We have unused capacity in the current economic climate and can build some additional if needed, but not so much it would be a problem once this order has been completed. Will there be additional orders in the future?”

“Yes,” Qiang replied. “Please give us a good price for this if you would, and the necessary deposit. Please do not have the deposit exceed 15% of the project. That should be enough money to get you going, yes? Should you need to contract for additional raw material, you will get them from us at then-current market prices. Please allow this in your calculations. We are not going to bid this competitively as it takes too much time, but we would like to ensure an honest business arrangement based on this price. Do not bankrupt yourselves, but do not take advantage, either. Thank you.”

Qiang turned back to Board as Park began thinking.

“Mr. Board? We would like you to bring as many of your people – and their families – as you can to do this work. We would not ask your people to come alone. We wish happy, productive workers. You just read the arrangement made with the other company. We are making the same offer to you. We are hiring, of course, many Chinese on this project. But we want as many experienced railroad workers from America as we can find – and as you can bring. We also ask that you subcontract all concrete work – likely all local mineral extraction, mixing, delivery – to an American company you identify to whom we can make the same offer. ” He paused and looked at Premier Fang.

Looking at the Americans in the room, Fang said calmly, “We need – the world needs – America moving forward again, and the salaries we pay – and the taxes your government takes – are required to pay-down your debt and get America moving. We will be paying in dollars and using your country’s tax tables to withhold the correct amounts, which we will deliver to your tax authorities. The world needs a free-market, innovative and producing America, perhaps now more than ever. You cannot be so when you lack jobs. We want to put you to work.”

Mr. Board quietly considered what Fang said.

Qiang watched Board think for a long minute and then asked, “Mr. Board? What is your preferred deposit to begin planning and executing this project? And when can I expect to know how many of your team will be coming with you? I will need to arrange additional workers for your crew if you cannot supply enough.”

Board decided to see if he was really serious. “I need a deposit of $50,000,000. Once I have that I’ll begin meeting with my teams. I can provide a rough estimate within 24 hours of workers, families to be moved, and a very high-level initial schedule. Costs will be rough because you want the estimate so quickly. We will need to re-examine the schedule and budget in detail as soon as we can, but if you want this rail built in the stated timeframe, we’ll need to have men on-site within weeks. Are you paying men at Chinese scales or American?”

“We are asking for your sole-source bid, Mr. Board, and we want you to make your normal profit, plus a markup for the location. We will be adding bonuses for making the schedule to which we will both agree. We will pay your company for the entire project. We are hiring your company; you pay your workers. We would like you to estimate it at the same rates you would if you were building it in America – as quickly as possible. There will be reviews of these estimates as we progress to ensure you are profiting from the work. We have no interest in your not making a profit. I am sure your people will find that they will be making relatively far more than in America, given our much lower cost-of-living. They may lack some amenities, but we think that the housing and schooling and work we are providing will make up for those things. The agreement will be for five years at a minimum. We will extend it should we find we need additional track mileage, and for maintenance workers, as well. You will hire Americans at standard labor rates. If you wish to lower your costs through foreign low-cost labor rather than bringing Americans with you, we will immediately go to your competitors in America. Is that understood?” Board nodded and began thinking logistics, costs and schedules.

Qiang turned back to the Korean steel man. “Mr. Park?” he asked.

Park seemed to complete his mental calculations, nodded, wrote two numbers on the card, a project estimated total and a deposit amount to begin planning and working, and handed it to the Interior Minister. Qiang examined the card and nodded. It was a good number, just about what he had expected. A bit higher, but not enough to quibble over.

“What is the interest of China in America paying-down its debt?” Board asked.

Ignoring him for the moment, Qiang picked up his briefcase and placed it on the table. He unlatched it, opened it and removed a large business checkbook. Turning to the first page of checks in the book, Qiang wrote a check and handed it to Park. “Is this the deposit amount you just told me?”

“Yes,” said the dumbstruck man.

“You will notice it is drawn on the Korea Exchange Bank. If you would like, you may check with them now to assure yourself that the funds are on-deposit for this check.”

Park looked at Qiang, then the premier, and then at the others assembled, nodded, and placed the check in the inside breast pocket of his suit coat. “I have no reason to mistrust you for something so large and so public. One assumes you have something even larger in mind, and that being dishonest with me will not help you achieve your goal, whatever it may be.”

“Thank you, Sir,” said the minister, nodding.

Jackson had worked railroads in college and understood something of that industry. He looked at Qiang and asked, “Minister, ten thousand kilometers of right-of-way would seem to require quite a fleet of trucks for the movement of men and supplies.”

“Yes, Mr. Jackson, and if you would be so good as to begin trusting me and filling-out the cards requested, we will get to that in a moment. We also will need quite a bit of heavy construction equipment – bulldozers, loaders, scrapers, dump trucks, etc. We are meeting with Caterpillar and Deere tomorrow morning. If you also would like to attend that meeting – we know your company also produces some of those items, as well as long-haul trucks we will need to transport supplies for building and servicing the towns we will create, you will be welcomed.”

Jackson began writing on his card.

Qiang turned to the Chairman of General Electric. “Mr. Billings,” he asked.

“Yes?”

“We need 200 locomotives over three years. Heavy freight, high-speed, long-haul. Your best diesel-electrics.”

“Standard price?” asked Billings calmly. He had begun to absorb and appreciate the magnitude of what was occurring.

“Yes,” replied Qiang.

“Are you allowing for spares and maintenance in your figure? Normal spares for maintenance, wreckage, etc., are five or ten percent. Would you like me to price 225, and will this be with my current or supplemented capacity? And the delivery? When do you need your first shipment?” He was fully in the game now.

“225 will be fine, thank you. If you think additional manufacturing capacity will be required to service this order and your current customers, please include that, but do not be greedy. There will be more,” Qiang replied. “And we would like the first ten as quickly as you can provide them. Two months, with the remaining 215 delivered at a rate of five per month?”

“We can do that,” Billings agreed. “Deposit?”

“No more than 15%, please.”

“And China’s interest in America “getting going” again…?”

“In a moment, please, Mr. Billings.”

Billings thought, wrote and handed the card to Qiang.

The Minister collected Billings’ card and the additional cards from the automakers and briefly looked at them. The auto numbers basically were the same as the published ones. Qiang now assumed that he was being dealt with honestly.

“Thank you,” Qiang said as he put down the cards.

Again reaching in to his briefcase, Qiang pulled out a different checkbook, one embossed with the logo of the largest American commercial bank, removed a check and began to write. Finished, he handed it to Mr. Board. “Here is the $50,000,000 deposit you require,” he said, handing the check to a surprised Board.

He wrote another check and handed it to Billings. Billings looked at it and placed it into his pocket. “Thank you. Who is my primary contact for the necessary paperwork, questions and project information?”

Qiang removed a sheet of paper from his case and handed it to Billings. “Here is the pertinent information, as well as my American office, apartment and cellular telephone numbers, should there be any problems or questions.” He handed another to Board. “If you would like, we will precede the orders with a contract. But our preference, of course, since we have already provided many millions of dollars, is to proceed on our handshake and follow with a contract. Will this be acceptable?”

“Yes, thank you,” nodded Mr. Billings, taking the sheet, glancing at it and folding it into thirds before placing it in the inside breast pocket of his suit coat, along with the check. “Will there be anything more?” he asked, beginning to rise. He wanted to get going on this right away, to call his executive team together and share this news, as well as ensure he could meet the promises he had just made, perhaps too quickly.

“Yes, Mr. Billings, if you could wait, please, as we finish these other transactions.”

“Of course.” He sat again.

Qiang removed and handed a similar sheet to Mr. Park. “Here is similar contact information for you, Sir.” Park took the paper with a nod.

Qiang again turned to the automakers. “I would now like to ask you gentlemen,” he said, “to use the second card to tell me how many units you could be making annually, in addition to your current output, if you ran at three-shift capacity. In other words, your current, total capacity. Again, this can be extrapolated from current information, but we would like to ensure reliable data. Please do not add planned capacity, just what you have now. Thank you.”

The men, having entered the game this far, and having watched the previous transactions each quickly filled-out his card. Qiang gathered the cards from the men, looked at each for a moment and nodded.

“It seems, gentlemen, that amongst all of you is an unused capacity of approximately 317,000 units of annual American production.”

Again, the executives at the table remained impassive.

“On the next card, please write the revenue you would anticipate that your unused capacity would deliver to you if manufactured in your current plants, in your current ratio of cars-to-trucks and of the various model types, with your current employee base and sold at your current list price, minus 15%.” As he spoke he walked around the table and returned the cards to the men. “In short, approximately – we can finalize detailed pricing later - what you would charge me to buy all of the vehicles you can make over-and-above your current production, but within your current capacity, on an ongoing basis.

Because the information still seemed non-confidential, and each auto executive knew his prices were on the street anyway, each did a rough average calculation in his head and wrote down the number. Again, the Minister picked-up the cards, looked at them, handed them back, and continued.

“Please, now, Gentlemen, one last request, and this probably can be answered only in the broadest of estimates. We would like to purchase approximately one million new cars and light trucks annually for a minimum period of 10 years. What would it cost for each of your companies to build an expansion plant in the state of either Indiana, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi or Texas, adding an annual capacity of, say, 150,000 autos and trucks?”

Mr. Jackson immediately saw the connection between this question and the lack of an invitation to his peers at General Motors or Chrysler. He looked at Minister Qiang for a long moment, then turned his gaze to Premier Fang, who returned it expressionlessly.

Qiang looked at Jackson steadily, waiting.

In for a penny, decided Jackson, and wrote a number on the card, as did the others.

Minister Qiang again picked them up and reviewed them.

Qiang again opened his checkbook and wrote two checks, handing them to Jackson. “The first is for your new plant. I would ask that it be online within twelve months. Can you do this?”

“Yes,” said Mr. Jackson, accepting the check.

“The second is for the first year of your third-shift capacity. But we do have one caveat,” said Qiang, “which I will tell you in a moment.”

He turned back to his briefcase and opened another checkbook, and wrote checks for the new plants and one year’s unused American capacity to the other automobile manufacturing executives, and then handed these out. The amounts of each check were the amount they each had written in response to the query.

Billions of dollars changed hands.

“We are buying,” Qiang said, “paid one year in advance, and are contracting for ten years, the number of cars you can build in America with your current capacity, and the additional capacity just discussed. A formal agreement will be in your hands by the beginning of next week. It is likely this agreement will be extended regularly.

“Regarding your manufacturing, we will not accept cars from any locations other than your current American manufacturing locations and the new ones we are asking you now to build.”

He turned to Mr. Jackson. “Mr. Jackson, your new plant will be built in one of the states I just mentioned – not in Michigan. Please be certain you understand this.”

Qiang then returned to addressing all of the men. “These vehicles should be delivered FOB under your standard three-shift schedule to the port of New Orleans, where they will be shipped by us to their destinations. We would like to ask that you use only North American suppliers for your steel, aluminum, engines, electronics, tires and other parts of these vehicles. Please ensure radios, tools, fittings, etc., meet Chinese standards.”

The men looked at him, stunned, as they pocketed the checks.

Jackson looked a question at him, not replying.

“Our intent,” said Minister Qiang, “which you need to know to understand and, which, I believe, Mr. Jackson, Mr. Billings, Mr. Board, will answer your question, is this.” He reached for and sipped from a glass of ice water on the table before him, and set it down.

“Russia recently has received from China one trillion dollars of US Debt. In return, Russia has sold Siberia to China.” He looked at the stunned men. “You will, of course keep this information confidential for the next several days or we will simply cancel the agreements and no more money will be exchanged and no jobs will be open to your employees.” He looked at each man, and each man nodded his understanding and acceptance.

Qiang continued, “China immediately will begin the exploitation of known, but un-used, resources inside Siberia, and to explore for more. This will require roads, railroads and vehicles. Have you any questions?”

It was a moment before anyone could respond.

“Yes,” Mr. Jackson finally said. “I understand the rail and engine purchases, and the indication of heavy equipment and trucks, which I hope will be ours, of course, but I do not understand the purchase of millions of cars. I mean … Chinese… make cars.” He paused. “Nor do I understand – completely – the manufacturing location you desire.”

“Yes, Mr. Jackson,” Qiang replied. “We do manufacture automobiles.” Qiang paused and then said, “And you are being disingenuous in your statement of location, are you not?”

When Jackson did not reply, Premier Fang spoke. “Mr. Jackson, even with the purchase of Siberia, China still holds over one trillion dollars of American debt. Japan owns over a trillion more. The only way that debt will be repaid by America, and people again put to work and consuming our manufactured goods, as I am sure you have figured-out, is if your economy is working. We are trying to ensure that your economy is working at capacity. Simple, yes?”

“And the location requirements?” continued Mr. Jackson.

“We do not believe, Mr. Jackson,” responded Fang, “that unions add to America’s productivity; we believe they subtract from it. As we are vitally concerned with these trillion dollars of debt being repaid, with interest, the efficiency of your economy is of utmost interest to us. The states in which we desire this production to occur do not require unions. If you are unwilling or unable to meet this caveat, please tell us now. It is, as you have no-doubt surmised, the reason your government-owned counterparts are not here. Enriching the union or government will not ensure the payment of the American debt we now hold. Enriching the worker, his family, and the economy … will. We will buy cars your current capacity can make, and we understand you must deal with the unions currently in-place. We will not pay for new capacity in states outside those I mentioned. If your workers strike we will cancel all orders not then on the assembly line, and move those orders to your competitors,” he nodded toward the foreign manufacturing heads, “in what you call ‘right-to-work’ states. Is that clear?”

The men looked at Fang, understanding a rhetorical question when they heard one.

Board nodded, rose and said, “Thank you, gentlemen. I assure you my company looks forward to this work. Because this amount of work requires my company to get started immediately, I will be on my way. Good night.”

He shook Qiang’s hand, nodded to the Premier, “Mr. Premier,” and left the room.