Читать книгу Mathematics of the market. Service random flow - Alexandr Berlin - Страница 9

The intensity of demand called the demand of goods per unit of time. For measuring the size of demand is applied relative consumption. A unit of measurement of the intensity of demand of the goods sometimes may make the value a=1, i.e. equal to the maximum consumption (P_real= P_max) per unit time.

The intensity of demand in a general case can vary in different hours of the day, days of the week and months of the year. Observations have revealed that, along with random fluctuations of demand, there are exist, relatively regular fluctuations that must be considered when predicting the quantity demanded.

The most significant fluctuations with the seasons.

For some goods the greatest demand falls on a holiday, (e.g. New Year).

Largely they depend on level of life in this area and structural composition of consumers, which serves the market.

Regular fluctuations in demand may depend on the days of the week. On Saturday and Sunday, the demand for goods of mass consumption can be higher than in the other days of the week. Regular fluctuations in demand are observed for the months of the year. The minimum load on the mass consumer goods, excluding resort towns, is observed in the summer months: June, July, and August. The maximum load on the goods of mass demand occurs in February, March and November, December; should be measured demand in these months.

For strategic goods, such as oil, weapons and etc. plays role of the political situation, global and local conflicts.

For the satisfactory quality of customer service at any time, the calculation of the offer you must perform on the basis of the intensity of demand at a time when he is the greatest.

This time will be called the time of greatest demand – TGD (similar to the Busy-Hour of Greatest Traffic – HGT in theory queueing).

The time of greatest demand – TGD it is a continuous time interval during which the average intensity of the demand is the greatest.

The degree of concentration of demand in the TGD estimated coefficient of concentration

k_TGD=A_TGD/A_obs,

where A _TGD. the demand value for TDG;

A_obs. the demand value during the observation.