Читать книгу The Foreign Exchange Matrix - Barbara Rockefeller - Страница 12

Chances are the realities of the FX market are not what you might think. In this book, we point out that:

 FX is driven more by pure speculation and global investment flows than by economic facts and ideas.

  FX players thumb their noses at the efficient market hypothesis and the concept of rational expectations.

  FX has a disconnect puzzle in which factors that should move the market do not, such as the three decades of persistent trade surpluses in Japan and deficits in the US. The exchange rate does not work as an equilibrating factor, as economists insist it should.

  While we cannot forecast exchange rates systematically, we can trade FX systematically.

  FX does not have a benchmark rate of return that traders or investors must try to match and surpass.

  FX traders are vastly more disciplined than traders in other sectors, in part because they use technical analysis.

  We do not have volume statistics in FX, except in the most delayed and roundabout forms.

In summary, the FX market is endlessly fascinating, not least because figuring out some of its puzzles and perversities leads to profound insights into the human heart and mind, albeit sometimes all you get is the same old insight that the profit motive always rules in markets and it doesn’t pay to attribute mystical properties to mere prices.