Читать книгу The Foreign Exchange Matrix - Barbara Rockefeller - Страница 19

In a way, perverse FX responses to events are a form of irrational rationality, like the prisoner’s dilemma. Both parties (bulls and bears) would benefit if they both stay silent, but often the first prisoner will confess because he doesn’t know whether the second prisoner appreciates that his self-interest lies in staying silent. Translated to FX, it pays to jump to conclusions on the assumption that others will jump to those conclusions, even if they are nonsensical conclusions. One such perversity, after the 2008 global financial crisis, is the dollar reliably, consistently and persistently falling on good economic news – it occurs because good US data implies the environment is safe for risk-taking in non-US dollar currencies and assets.

To get oriented in trying to answer the perversity question, you have to accept two ideas mentioned in the Introduction: the first is that the price of a currency is set at any one moment in time by traders whose only goal is to make a profit. FX traders usually do not know, nor do they care about, fair value. They want to buy low and sell high, or buy high and sell higher. The second idea is that a key tool in this quest for profit is technical analysis.