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Operating Instructions

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 RISING STOCK PRICES CAN ALSO BITE. The mother of all stock hits on a consensus miss happens to growth companies whose share prices are stoked by inflated investor expectations (recall eBay’s 22 percent price drop upon a penny miss). Accordingly, resist the temptation of riding an inflated stock price tiger, and deflate investors’ overly optimistic expectations well before the inevitable disappointment.

 AVOID QUICK FIXES. Unless the earnings shortfall is small and temporary, you should resist quick fixes—last-minute sales blitz, cost cuts, or shifts to future periods—for the sake of making the numbers. When such moves are not part of a carefully planned restructuring, they will only exacerbate future sales and earnings shortfalls.

 THE ONE THING YOU SHOULDN’T MANAGE. You should avoid earnings manipulation or the better-sounding yet equally deleterious earnings management at all costs, on both ethical and practical grounds. Since most manipulation schemes “borrow from the future,” they soon spiral out of control and, when ultimately revealed, the consequences to the company and its managers are harsh.32

 JUST DO THIS. The recommended course when facing a consensus miss is to warn investors of the impending shortfall as soon as practicable, share with them the corrective actions planned, report the financials honestly, and follow with detailed and credible progress reports.

Winning Investors Over

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