Читать книгу Ignore the Hype - Brian Perry - Страница 28

Everything I wrote earlier is absolutely true. Some asset classes or sectors greatly outperform others. And choosing the winners will produce better results. But here's the interesting thing. Let's look again at that chart with the returns of the different asset classes and portfolio mixes.

This time, though, I'm going to add one bar to the chart. That bar, which you can see in Figure 2.3, represents the performance of the average individual investor across the past 20 years.

It turns out that it almost didn't matter what you bought over the past 20 years! Almost anything would have produced better results than what most people actually achieved!

Sure, buying real estate investment trusts (REITs) was better than buying bonds, and the S&P 500 did better than international stocks. But at the end of the day, buying and holding any of those would have outperformed the average investor's portfolio.

Figure 2.3 The Performance of the Average Investor (1999–2018)

SOURCE: Analysis by Brian Perry. Data from JP Morgan Asset Management & Dalbar, Inc.

The same holds true for asset allocations. Yes, different investors might want to have different investment mixes. And the asset allocation mix is one of the most critical decisions you need to make. But ultimately, nearly any reasonable asset mix would have done better than the actual experience of the average individual over the past two decades.

So, first I talked about the importance of asset allocation and selecting the best sectors or asset classes. But now I'm telling you it didn't matter what you bought, because almost anything would have done better than the average investor. So, what gives?