Читать книгу Ignore the Hype - Brian Perry - Страница 30

I need to be careful here in this section, because for many people, the idea that financial markets are similar to casino gambling strikes too close to home. So just to be clear in advance, I am not suggesting in any way, shape, or form that investing is akin to gambling. Speculating, short-term trading, and wading into markets you're unfamiliar with may very well represent a form of gambling. But long-term investing, when armed with knowledge and the intestinal fortitude to stay the course, represents a systematic endeavor with a high likelihood of success, which by definition is the exact opposite of gambling.

So, no, long-term investing isn't gambling. However, there is an important similarity between investing and gambling – namely, the importance of understanding probabilities.

Why are the casinos in Las Vegas and other large gambling centers so nice? Why do they have dancing fountains, rollercoasters, elaborate Egyptian or Parisian themes, or painted ceilings reminiscent of the Sistine Chapel?

The answer of course is that the reason casinos are so nice is that they can afford to splurge on decorations because they make a heck of a lot of money. Plus, the nicer or more elaborate the casino, the more likely people are to visit. And casinos, above and beyond all else, want to generate foot traffic to their location.

And why is that?

Well, it's because visitors might gamble, and gamblers, in the long run, always lose money. And when the gamblers lose money, the casino wins.

Yes, I realize that your Aunt Milly may have won $500 on a penny slot machine last week, and you may have had a good run at the blackjack tables last visit and gone home with an extra five grand in your pocket. Heck, sometimes casinos even get taken to the proverbial cleaners. Not that long ago, a group of high-stakes players went on a roll, and Wynn Casino in Macau lost $10 million! The loss was so large that Wynn was forced to disclose it publicly, because it had a material impact on their quarterly earnings.

But you know what? Despite the loss, Wynn opened its doors the very next day (or to be more accurate, the doors probably never closed in the first place). And Wynn would have been more than happy to invite those very same gamblers back at any point and give them another shot at winning big.

Why? Because while the probabilities don't mean that the casino is going to win every game, or every day, or even every month or year, they do mean that, in the long run, the casino is absolutely, 100%, guaranteed to win. There simply cannot be any other outcome.

After all, gamblers have the following odds on casino games:

 Roulette: 45%

 Slot machines: 35% (depending on the casino and game)

 Blackjack: 48%

Of course, that means that the house has the following odds on casino games:

 Roulette: 55%

 Slot machines: 65%

 Blackjack: 52%

So, if you're the casino, you stay open 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, come rain or snow or sun. Because the more you're open, the more people play, and the more you win.