Читать книгу Proficient Motorcycling - David L. Hough - Страница 21

Doesn’t it make sense that bigger, more powerful motorcycles would be involved more often in serious crashes? The Hurt Report didn’t show that to be true.

Back in the 1970s, apparently larger machines were less likely to be involved in accidents than were smaller motorcycles, especially if you factored in the estimated numbers of machines on the road. Part of the reason may be that in those days, riders moved up to larger motorcycles as they gained experience.

Engine Displacement Versus Accidents
Displacement	Percent of Accidents	Estimated Machines in Use
0-10 0cc	9 percent	8 percent
101-250cc	13 percent	9 percent
251-500cc	37 percent	26 percent
501-750cc	25 percent	34 percent
751+ cc	16 percent	23 percent

Government and insurance groups continue to be suspicious of the relationship between engine displacement and fatal crashes. The NCSA number-crunchers have observed that larger bikes are showing up more and more in fatal crashes:

Motorcyclist Fatalities by Year and Engine Displacement (cc)

Source: National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, FARS

According to the NCSA numbers, motorcycles 500cc and under have dropped from 17 percent of fatalities in 1990 to 6 percent in 1999. In that same time frame, machines of 1,001 to 1,500cc had increased from 22 percent of fatalities in 1990 to 33 percent in 1999. In other words, larger motorcycles seemed to be involved in the fatality increases. The researchers at first thought they had discovered the smoking gun that would explain the increases in fatalities. But it turns out that it’s just a matter of the demographics. When you factor in the sizes of motorcycles being purchased today, it becomes more obvious that the trend toward bigger displacement bikes being involved in fatal crashes is simply a mirror of motorcyclists’ buying preferences.

What’s more, engine displacement isn’t a good measure of motorcycle performance. There are more than a few 600cc sportbikes around with quarter-mile speeds of over 120 mph. At the same time, we have some heavyweight cruisers in the 1,500cc class with top speeds of less than 100 mph.

It might make sense to limit novice riders to less powerful machines. In some countries, novice riders are limited to smaller motorcycles, typically 250cc, during their probationary learning phase. Then, after a year or two, if the new rider can show proficiency, he or she can apply for a license to operate a larger bike. That concept would be hard to implement in the United States, where an individual has been free to purchase whatever machine strikes his or her fancy, with no proof of skill level. For tiered licensing to work in the United States, states would need to stiffen up the licensing process, and that would be a very tough sell in the land of the free and the home of the brave.