Читать книгу The Failure of Risk Management - Douglas W. Hubbard - Страница 44

We will spend some time on several of the previously mentioned methods of assessing performance, but we will be spending a greater share of our time on component testing. This is due, in part, to the fact that there is so much research on the performance of various components, such as methods of improving subjective estimates, the performance of quantitative methods, using simulations, aggregating expert opinion, and more.

Still, even if risk managers use only component testing in their risk management process, many are likely to find serious shortcomings in their current approach. Many of the components of popular risk management methods have no evidence of whether they work, and some components have shown clear evidence of adding error. Still other components, though not widely used, can be shown to produce convincing improvements compared to the alternatives.

Lacking real evidence of effectiveness, some practitioners will employ some of the previously mentioned defenses. We will address at least some of those arguments in subsequent chapters, and we will show how some of those same arguments could have been used to make the case for the “validity” of astrology, numerology, or crystal healing. When managers can begin to differentiate the astrology from the astronomy, then they can begin to adopt methods that work.