Читать книгу The Failure of Risk Management - Douglas W. Hubbard - Страница 46

1 1. Some of the details of this are modified to protect the confidentiality of the firm that presented the method in this closed session, but the basic approach used was still a subjective weighted score.

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3 3. C. Heath and R. Gonzalez, “Interaction with Others Increases Decision Confidence but Not Decision Quality: Evidence against Information Collection Views of Interactive Decision Making,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 61, no. 3 (1995): 305–26.

4 4. Stuart Oskamp, “Overconfidence in Case-Study Judgments,” Journal of Consulting Psychology 29, no. 3 (1965): 261–65, doi: 10.1037/ h0022125. Reprinted in Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982).

5 5. P. Andreassen, “Judgmental Extrapolation and Market Overreaction: On the Use and Disuse of News,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3, no. 3 (July–September 1990): 153–74.

6 6. D. A. Seaver, “Assessing Probability with Multiple Individuals: Group Interaction versus Mathematical Aggregation,” Report No. 78–3 (Los Angeles: Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, 1978).

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8 8. D. Kahneman and G. Klein, “Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree,” American Psychologist (September 2009): 515–26.

9 9. “It's Academic,” Stanford GSB Reporter (April 24, 2000): 14–15.

10 10. E. Zuckerman and J. Jost, “What Makes You Think You're So Popular? Self-Evaluation Maintenance and the Subjective Side of the ‘Friendship Paradox,’” Social Psychology Quarterly 64, no. 3 (2001): 207–23.

11 11. D. M. Messick, S. Bloom, J. P. Boldizar, and C. D. Samuelson, “Why We Are Fairer Than Others,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 21 (1985): 480–500.

12 12. N. D. Weinstein, “Unrealistic Optimism about Future Life Events,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39 (1980): 806–20.

13 13. O. Svenson, “Are We All Less Risky and More Skillful Than Our Fellow Drivers?” Acta Psychologica 47 (1981): 143–48.

14 14. D. Dunning and J. Kruger, “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77, no. 6 (1999): 121–34.

15 15. N. Nohria, W. Joyce, and B. Roberson, “What Really Works,” Harvard Business Review (July 2003).

16 16. H. Bühlmann, “The Actuary: The Role and Limitations of the Profession since the Mid-19th Century,” ASTIN Bulletin 27, no. 2 (November 1997): 165–71.