Читать книгу Investing in Your 20s & 30s For Dummies - Eric Tyson - Страница 51

Stocks for the Long Run (McGraw-Hill) author Jeremy Siegel makes a surprising statement in his book: “… economic growth has nowhere near as big an impact on stock returns as most investors believe.” Siegel presents a long-term analysis going back to 1900, which shows that a country’s real GDP growth (that is, growth above the rate of inflation) is negatively correlated with stock market returns.

This surprising finding means that those economies experiencing higher rates of growth actually tend to produce lower long-term stock market returns. Siegel’s analysis shows that this fact is even more pronounced in developing countries. China is a recent example of a country that has enjoyed high rates of growth but relatively low stock market returns.

In explaining how this reality could possibly be, Siegel points out that the primary determinants of stock prices are earnings per share and dividends per share. Economic growth doesn’t necessarily boost earnings and dividends per share because growth requires higher capital expenditures, and as Siegel points out, this capital does not come freely. “The added interest costs in the case of debt financing and the dilution of earnings in the case of equity financing reduce the growth of earnings per share,” says Siegel.

Chapter 8 goes into detail on stocks, explaining how to invest in them successfully and not lose your shirt.