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Discovering the inflation and interest rate connection

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Consider what happened to interest rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s. After the United States successfully emerged from a terrible recession in the mid-1970s, the economy seemed to be on the right track. But within just a few years, the economy was in turmoil again. The annual increase in the cost of living (known as the rate of inflation) burst through 10 percent on its way to 14 percent. Interest rates, which are what bondholders receive when they lend their money to corporations and governments, followed inflation skyward.

Inflation and interest rates usually move in tandem. The primary driver of interest rates is the rate of inflation. Interest rates were much higher in the 1980s because the United States had double-digit inflation. If the cost of living increases at the rate of 10 percent per year, why would you, as an investor, lend your money (which is what you do when you purchase a bond or CD) at 5 percent? Interest rates were so much higher in the early 1980s because you would never do such a thing.

In recent years, interest rates have been very low. Therefore, the rate of interest that investors can earn lending their money has dropped accordingly. Although low interest rates reduce the interest income that comes in, the corresponding low rate of inflation doesn’t devour the purchasing power of your principal balance. That’s why lower interest rates aren’t necessarily worse, and higher interest rates aren’t necessarily better as you try to live off your investment income.

So what are investors to do when they’re living off the income they receive from their investments but don’t receive enough because of low interest rates? Some retirees have woken up to the risk of keeping all or too much of their money in short-term CD and bond investments. A simple but psychologically difficult solution is to use some of your principal to supplement your interest and dividend income. Using your principal to supplement your income is what effectively happens anyway when inflation is higher — the purchasing power of your principal erodes more quickly. You may also find that you haven’t saved enough money to meet your desired standard of living — that’s why you should consider your retirement goals well before retiring.

Investing All-in-One For Dummies

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