Читать книгу Mineral Resource Economics 1 - Florian Fizaine, Xavier Galiegue - Страница 13

This book aims to explore, identify and explain the possible bottlenecks associated with the use of mineral resources. The question of the use of mineral resources does not only arise in terms of the quantities available. An open, prospective and interdisciplinary reflection is, thus, necessary to accomplish this task. We have, therefore, mobilized a large team of researchers and thinkers on various issues associated with mineral resources. There are economists, of course, and also physicists, engineers, geologists, lawyers and geographers. This book also helps to bring together specialists working on this theme, often still too isolated and without any real lasting connections. Of course, there are many initiatives, such as the Association française des économistes de l’environnement et des ressources (FAERE, French Association of Environment and Resource Economists), the team around the “Cyclope” report or the contributions to the mineral-info.fr site, but these are still too fragmented or monodisciplinary compared to other much more unified fields like energy. It is also because energy is already entitled to large interdisciplinary teams that we have chosen to focus on mineral resources and exclude energy minerals from our scope of analysis.

To initiate this reflection, we have decided to adopt a structured approach based on three axes: context, issues and leverages of action, spread over two separate volumes. In Volume 1 of this work, the first axis – context – retraces a few elements that allow for a better understanding of the situation of mineral resources.

First of all, while mineral resources are at the heart of the most advanced technologies, a detailed knowledge of their flows is required in order to assess their demand. This is what Raphaël Danino-Perraud, Maïté Legleuher and Dominique Guyonnet (Chapter 1) focus on in relation to the cobalt market. For example, extraction and refining are highly concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo and China, respectively. The assessment of its demand in Europe uses the so-called “material flow analysis” (MFA) approach, which traces these flows and takes into account the multiple forms and uses of cobalt and its recycling possibilities, all the way to the “urban mine”. This MFA of cobalt, coupled with a value chain analysis based on European data, makes it possible to question the strategies of European groups that, anxious to position themselves in high value-added segments, end up dependent on operators working upstream (extraction and refining).

Some mineral resources are financialized while others are not and this has important consequences on the transparency and price dynamics prevailing in these markets. With this in mind, Yves Jégourel (Chapter 2) describes the role of the financialization of ore and metals. More specifically, the author reviews the organization and mechanisms of futures and their alternatives. The author also discusses the effect of financialization on the dynamics of mineral prices and also on the transformation of the sectors using them.

Beyond the financial aspects, the supply of mining resources is also part of institutions – in the first place, state policy. As such, not all countries seem to follow the same rules. While many have established a doctrine for the management of energy resources, this is not the case for mineral resources. Didier Julienne (Chapter 3) attempts to deconstruct the myth that countries are genuinely opposed to each other in order to get their hands on metals. In reality, countries such as China, which has a real resources doctrine, are advancing their pawns to secure their future supplies without encountering any real resistance from industrialized countries. The author calls for the reconstruction of a genuine resource strategy in Western countries and for stopping the over-reaction to often truncated economic information.

To assess the amount of mineral resources available to our economies, we use indicators that we rarely question. This is what Michel Jébrak (Chapter 4) does do. In particular, he demonstrates that mineral endowment is a complex concept that can be measured using different parameters: the annual production of a specific mineral and its reserves and their ratio, which can vary in terms of upward or downward trends for different minerals. This endowment can be generalized by the notion of basic reserves, which attempts to assess the overall geological potential of a given metal. If mineral resources are unevenly distributed geographically, their exploitation moves from one country to another according to the movement of industrialization, as in the case of the main copper and tin mines. Ultimately, mineral endowment is a historical construct, dependent on geological data, mineral extraction and processing technologies, and on the economics of mining, which is a capital-intensive industry.

The second part of this book reports on the challenges that mineral resources face. They concern the multiple factors that can affect the supply of mineral resources.

In a chapter focusing on the struggle between technical progress and the geological depletion of metal deposits, Olivier Vidal (Chapter 5) shows how two antagonistic approaches (optimistic and pessimistic) can be pooled into a formal approach of dilution–energy and energy–price relationships. Using formal theoretical tools, as well as empirical calibration on past data, he questions the perpetuation of observable price declines for most metals. This downward trend in prices should be reversed by the end of the century if the rate of technical improvement remains the same and if we continue to exploit increasingly less concentrated deposits.

Measuring the environmental footprint of mineral resources is a challenge that Jacques Villeneuve and his co-authors at BRGM propose to take up (Chapter 6). Indeed, the environmental footprint of human activities goes beyond its sole measurement in terms of surface area used to take into account all the environmental impacts on the lifecycle of products. The aim here is to measure this footprint using an extended input–output table (IOT) that determines the consumption of mineral resources and their environmental impacts, induced by final demand with a fine level of disaggregation. These IOTs are then interconnected within a multi-regional model to assess the final impact, including imports, of national demand. In spite of limitations related to the difficulty of obtaining databases comparing data on a global scale, it can be seen that the environmental footprint of the demand for metals required for French final demand is mainly made abroad.

Since the use of mineral resources is part of an economic issue, Romain Debref (Chapter 7) is interested in aspects related to environmental efficiency (energy and material) often implemented in many technologies in order to save resources and energy. He gives an overview of the history of eco-efficiency through the various movements that support it and its limits in terms of the originality and purpose of the concept. In a second step, he details the many forms of rebound effects that still hinder eco-efficiency.

We tend to forget this, but most of our consumption of raw materials requires some countries to specialize in the extraction of these resources. Yet a significant number of these countries have poorer economic health than countries without resources. Audrey Aknin (Chapter 8) shows the main factors that contribute to this resource curse. Far from the simple paradox of abundance, the resource curse is rooted in a variety of channels such as Dutch disease, increased income-seeking behavior, organizational failure, institutional dysfunction, corruption and civil war. The chapter also provides an overview of the recurrent failure of the various tools supported by international organizations to contain these phenomena. The author concludes with a few examples of countries that have successfully avoided the resource curse and the options that are now favored.

The increase in the supply of mineral resources also faces social and legal issues. Thus, Victoire Girard and Agnès Zabsonré (Chapter 9) demonstrate that the exploitation of natural resources can make a major contribution to the process of economic growth and development and that a significant part of the populations of low-income countries depend on the exploitation of mineral resources through artisanal mining. The impact of this exploitation is a controversial issue, leading to a resource curse in some cases, or economic benefits in others. Industrial mining can certainly have some positive local economic impacts, depending on the quality of governance of local institutions and their ability to create economic benefits for related industries. However, artisanal mining appears to have a greater positive effect on the consumption, incomes and well-being of the local population. The long-term impacts on well-being, as well as on health through local pollution, are more uncertain and should be better documented by further research.

In Volume 2, Emmanuel Hache and his co-authors (Chapter 1) review the criticality approaches recently deployed to analyze the new risk caused by the surge in raw material needs for the energy transition. Their overview of the studies leads them to question the absence of a homogeneous theoretical framework and to underline the weaknesses of current indicators (the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and the World Governance Index), particularly with regard to geopolitical aspects. While cartelization attempts in raw materials markets have all failed in the past (with the possible exception of OPEC), this fear is resurfacing today given the significant concentration of metal markets for oil. Researchers are showing what is really going on with lithium, cobalt, copper and rare earths. Finally, the authors discuss the values of different forms of public policy to manage commodity supply risk.

We will also see that more mineral resources uses also mean more extraction. However, the opening of new deposits according to their location does not go without posing legal problems. Stéphanie Reiche-de Vigan (Chapter 2) proposes a review of the different legal regimes affecting mineral resources. She discusses issues related to the domestic law of territorial mineral resources through the French and American cases. The question of the exploitation of mineral resources is posed differently in international law, depending on whether the resources are territorial (in the case of the seabed of the continental shelf) or extraterritorial (the seabed of international waters and the Antarctic). She explains that the current legal regimes are insufficient, often truncated and do not guarantee respect for all aspects of sustainable development.

Finally, Michel Deshaies (Chapter 3) traces how the presence of mineral resources influences the evolution of settlement mechanisms throughout history. In particular, the author shows that settlement mechanisms present historical, regional and material disparities (differences between metal and coal deposits). He also observes that territories where mining activities are carried out have to overcome several obstacles, such as recurrent conflicts with local populations, and also huge reconversion challenges for the post-mining period.

In a third problematic, we propose to explore the major leverage actions often perceived as answers, or elements of answers, to the challenges mentioned above: domestic mining, substitution, decoupling (or material efficiency), recycling and the sobriety associated with the concept of low-tech.

To begin with, Johan Yans (Chapter 4) discusses the interest of domestic extraction on European soil. Although still relevant in Europe, production from European countries that have maintained or developed a mining supply remains marginal in comparison with their needs. This inevitably results in a significant dependence of European industries on imports of mineral resources. As the author reminds us, however, there are inherent gains from the domestic extraction of existing and wellcharacterized resources: environmental gains linked to short circuits, the stimulation of local employment and the substitution of imports sometimes extracted under disastrous conditions. Nevertheless, major obstacles remain, such as a lack of professional skills (after training that has fallen into disuse since the 1990s) and above all local opposition generated by an often negative public perception (NIMBY syndrome). This is not inevitable and the author looks at the leverage action likely to reduce these dissensions.

Through the analysis of another unavoidable leverage action, Florian Fizaine (Chapter 5) proposes to explore the standard theory underlying intra-material substitution. In particular, he returns to the notions of the demand curve, price elasticity and cross-price elasticity of demand while underlining their shortcomings and limitations when applied to mineral resources. In particular, he sheds light on this lack by evoking the heterogeneity of situations according to the different scales of material sub-constitution. Lastly, he concludes by explaining the multiple technical, economic, socio-cultural and legal constraints that limit material substitution.

Thierry Lefèvre (Chapter 6) reviews empirical studies analyzing the decoupling (dematerialization) between GDP and the various indicators of raw material consumption. He shows that decoupling is at best relative and not absolute, as would be desired by international organizations promoting sustainable development and energy transition. These decoupling indicators also leave aside several important issues, such as inequality and the quality of life of populations. These other dimensions must be taken into account in the future to achieve true sustainable development.

A little further on, Alain Geldron (Chapter 7) describes how recycling activities have been gradually implemented in different countries. Although there are some similarities, traditional mining and urban mining are different in terms of logic and economic model. The author then examines the main factors for the efficiency of recycling through its successive stages (collection, transport, etc.). Finally, he also discusses the most important constraints on recycling and whether they are related to the recycling stage or to the type of metal recycled.

In the final chapter, Philippe Bihouix (Chapter 8) argues that it is impossible to achieve a complete circular economy through recycling and dematerialization. Therefore, frugality and a particular form of ecodesign should be favored, namely the concept of low-tech. He also insists on the importance of choosing the right scale to implement these, on the primary role of humans in their reparability and finally on the need to pursue a new utopia with positive results expected for people in order to achieve this necessary ecological transition.

To conclude, we discuss the main lessons established by these contributions and also the other questions they left open. While the various contributions have shown that the limits to growth no longer lie in the depletion of mineral resources and fossil fuels but in the impact of their exploitation on the environment, all the proposed solutions have their limits, whether it is technical progress, recycling or the circular economy. What remains is the use of greater frugality in our behavior, on the condition that this frugality is not suffered by the most disadvantaged. In any case, we hope that the insights provided by this collective work will call to others on the long road that remains to be traveled to reach sustainability.