Читать книгу Economics of G20 - Группа авторов - Страница 47

Manmohan Agarwal

Centre for Development Studies Thiruvananthapuram, India manmohan44@gmail.com

Adrita Banerjee

Centre for Economic Studies and Planning Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India adritabanerjee1995@gmail.com

Abstract

This chapter analyses the effect of the 2008 crisis on the economic performance of a sample of large emerging countries. First, these countries are grouped in three regions — Africa, Asia and Latin America (LA). The broad trends in the countries of the three regions are similar. Growth rate of GDP per capita fell in the years 2008–2009 immediately after the financial crisis but recovered subsequently. The share of exports of goods and services in GDP increased initially in all three regions. Later the share fell in LA and Asia but continued to increase in Sub­Saharan Africa (SSA).

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased in 2008–2009 and later it decreased for LA and SSA while it continued to increase in Asia. The investment in Asian countries was financed by higher savings rates, and thus they maintained a sustainable current account (CA). The African countries with higher CA deficits than seen historically and Latin American countries which saw a fall in investment rates and a deterioration in the CA still face major problems of adjustment.

The chapter then analyses the performance of individual countries. This presents a mixed picture. Only three countries have a significantly different growth rate. It seems that these large countries have weathered the crisis without a significantly lower growth and the brunt of the adjustment burden seems to have fallen on smaller countries. By and large, the countries have a higher investment ratio, a higher money growth and a lower interest rate, which helped to maintain the investment rate.

Analysis using Pearson’s rank correlation as well as correlation analysis suggests that countries with good export performance grew faster before the crisis and their better export performance enabled them to build up reserves. Their better export performance continued after the crisis, which along with the reserves accumulated from the past export performance enabled these countries to better tackle the crisis and maintain high rates of investment and growth.