Читать книгу EIB Investment Report 2020/2021 - Группа авторов - Страница 35

While the pandemic may be brought under control sometime in the near future, it may have a permanent effect on the economy. The size and nature of the shock caused by the pandemic are such that it will likely trigger sweeping, structural changes in the economy, altering how we work, commute, travel and spend our holidays for many years to come. The evolution will likely modify investment priorities and employment patterns. Firms that do not invest in adapting to these changes might be left unprepared for future challenges.

The share of firms that do not have any investment plans in the next three years has increased compared to the average from 2016 to 2019 (Figure 16a). The share of small firms that do not plan to invest in the next three years has risen even faster. Smaller firms face greater difficulties in coping with the economic shock caused by the pandemic. The evidence is corroborated in Figure 15. Smaller firms that do not plan to invest over the next three years have significantly lower median productivity than smaller firms that plan to invest. The difference in productivity is largely absent for medium and large firms. It is therefore very likely that the consequences of the coronavirus on investment and productivity will be felt acutely in the medium term.

Digital technology is likely to become more widely used. Half of the firms in the European Union expect the use of digital technologies to increase because of the COVID-19 crisis. The share of firms that expect digital technology to increase is higher in Western and Northern Europe (53%) and on par with firms in the United States (Figure 16b). In Southern and Central and Eastern Europe, the share is somewhat lower, but still above 40%. These high percentages underline the importance of investing in digital technologies if firms are to remain competitive (see Chapter 7).

Supply chains will change, along with product and service portfolios. More than a third of firms in the European Union expect long-term effects on their supply chains and product portfolios. These views were expressed in the wake of significant supply-chain disruptions in the first and second quarters of 2020. The results support expectations about structural changes in supply chains and in industries whose products and services are built around social interaction and face-to-face contact.

Figure 16

Firms’ assessment of the longer-term consequences of the pandemic

Source: EIBIS 2020.

About 20% of all firms estimate that the job cuts they made during the pandemic will be permanent. This share is constant across the European Union and in the United States. The aggregate effect of such a shock will be felt differently across the various countries, depending on their labour market institutions (Nickell, 1997). Economies whose labour markets are highly regulated may see a significant increase in structural unemployment, which could last for several years. While structural unemployment may not increase much in countries with more flexible regimes, a significant reduction of employment remains a challenge.