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Following a decade of contraction, the share of infrastructure investment in overall economic activity has been increasing since 2018 (Figure 17). The government and corporate sectors combined account for some 90% of EU infrastructure investment. While their shares are broadly equal, it was the corporate sector that provided the impetus for the recovery from the global financial crisis. The government sector’s share of infrastructure investment, on the other hand, contracted severely in 2016 when it barely attained 42% of overall infrastructure investment activity. In 2017 and 2018, it contributed to the recovery of infrastructure investment, with its share rising to 44%.[11] The share of project-based infrastructure investment remains just shy of 10% after a rebound in 2017. Previously, its share had steadily contracted from a high of some 16% in 2011 to a low of 8% in 2016. About two-thirds of projects are not carried out as a public private partnership (PPP). Since 2011, the aggregate value of PPP investments has declined steadily, whereas the aggregate value of non-PPP projects declined more forcefully through 2016 and have steadily risen since.

Figure 17

EU infrastructure investment by sector (% GDP)

Source: EIB calculations, European PPP Expertise Centre (EPEC), Eurostat, IJ Global.

Note: Annual infrastructure investment in EU27 by institutional sector as a share of GDP, expressed as a percentage. Infrastructure projects are either PPP or non-PPP. The remainder is split between government and corporate investment; for 2019, data to calculate the government component are not available at the time of publication. Relevant data series are not published for Belgium, Croatia, Lithuania, Poland or Romania. Slight deviations from the 2018 results are due to a refinement in the estimate of depreciation of infrastructure investment, as well as the Brexit-induced recomposition to EU27.

In terms of asset type, investment in communications infrastructure has been the most dynamic component of the rebound. Education and transport infrastructure investment provided further support (Figure 18). Transportation and utilities constitute some 60% of infrastructure investment assets. Though broadly equal in parts, the share of utilities has been declining steadily since a high of 33% in 2013, reaching a low of 27% in 2019. The share of social infrastructure assets in health and education is fairly stable, constituting about one-third of investment; typically, health accounts for about 60% of this though education steadily increased its share from 39% in 2016 to 43% in 2019. The smallest and most volatile share of infrastructure investment is attributable to communications. In 2019, it accounted for just over 7% of infrastructure investments.

Figure 18

EU infrastructure investment by asset class (% GDP)

Source: EIB calculations, EPEC, Eurostat, IJ Global.

Note: Annual infrastructure investment in EU27 by infrastructure asset as a share of GDP, expressed as a percentage. Data missing for Belgium, Croatia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. Where data are not yet available, the sector share is assumed constant – this is generally the case for 2019 with Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Portugal, the areas of education, health and transport in the Netherlands, as well as with Denmark generally for 2018 and 2019. Slight deviations from the 2018 results are due to a refinement in the estimate of depreciation of infrastructure investment as well as the Brexit-induced recomposition to EU27.

Following a decade of a highly uneven contraction, the recent EU rebound has seen Southern Europe falling further behind. Central and Eastern Europe as well as Southern Europe led a decade-long contraction in EU infrastructure investment’s share of GDP, which bottomed out in 2017. Driving the revival is a rebound in Western and Northern European Member States, where the share of investment in GDP reached 1.8% in 2019, exceeding pre-crisis peak levels. Throughout 2018, the bulk of the increase was carried by the corporate sector, with support from government investment, while private sector projects provided some marginal dynamism. In 2019, Central and Eastern Europe provided further impetus to the revival, with the share of infrastructure investment in GDP reaching 1.9% in 2019, more than half of the pre-crisis highs. Here, government activities have become the mainstay of infrastructure investment, accounting for nearly two-thirds of 2018 volumes, whereas the corporate sector continues to wane, accounting for merely one-third. Projects have dwindled to barely 3% of infrastructure activity. It remains to be seen how the closing of the EU budget cycle will affect investment in the coming years and whether the predominant position of government investment will continue. In Southern Europe, government investment provided some tentative stabilisation in 2018 and the overall share in GDP increased to 1.12% in 2019, here again just over half of the pre-crisis level. Non-PPP projects have more than doubled since 2016 to 0.12% of 2019 GDP.

Figure 19

Regional shares of infrastructure investment by asset class

Source: EIB calculations, EPEC, Eurostat, IJ Global

Note: Shares of infrastructure investment by infrastructure asset and by EU27 region in 2019 expressed as a percentage. Regions are Western and Northern, Southern, and Central and Eastern. Data missing for Belgium, Croatia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. Where data are not yet available, the sector share is assumed constant – this is generally the case for 2019 with Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Portugal, the areas of education, health and transport in the Netherlands as well as with Denmark generally for 2018 and 2019. Slight deviations from the 2018 results are due to a refinement in the estimate of depreciation of infrastructure investment as well as Brexit-induced recomposition to EU27.

Communications’ share of infrastructure investment has remained elevated since 2015 (Figure 19). In Western and Northern Europe, three-quarters of infrastructure investment is accounted for in broadly equal measures by utilities, transport and health; the remaining quarter is dominated by education, with communications representing 7%. Transport and utilities constitute around three-quarters of investment for both Central and Eastern and Southern Europe. In Central and Eastern Europe, the bulk of the remainder is dedicated to education. In Southern Europe, communications remains the third-largest sector, with a share in excess of 10% of overall infrastructure investment, well ahead of the corresponding shares elsewhere, whereas the shares of education, health and utilities have dipped below their average in recent years. Considering their relatively small size, health and education represented a disproportionate share of the decade-long contraction in infrastructure investment in Southern Europe.

PPPs in the European Union remain concentrated in Western and Northern European Member States, with a continued decline in the number of projects reaching financial close[12] accompanied by an increase in average value (Figure 20). Compared to the period preceding the global financial crisis, annual volumes had declined to less than half in 2018. In the wake of the sovereign and banking crisis in the euro area, a saddle (high) point emerged in 2013 and 2014, following which volumes declined until 2019, when they constituted a mere third of the 2010 high. Activity in 2019 remained thin in Southern Europe and at best sporadic in Central and Eastern Member States. Over the first half of 2020, the number and total value of projects reaching financial close was broadly in line with the very low levels of 2019.

Figure 20

Total annual values of PPPs reaching financial close by region (EUR billion)

Source: EPEC.

Note: Total annual value in billion euro of PPPs brought to financial close in EU27. 2020 includes deals brought to financial close by 30 June 2020.

Communications projects have represented the second largest area of activity since 2016, with transport typically accounting for the bulk (Figure 21). Since 2016, transport projects have constituted some 56% of the total value of projects and nearly 40% of the number. Activity in 2017 was unusually low on both counts. Over the same period, communication projects have constituted an average of 20% of projects and one-quarter of their value. PPPs in communication essentially involve broadband roll-outs, notably in France but also in Austria, Poland and Greece. While education projects account for nearly one-quarter of the number, the value averaged around 8% of the total for the period.

The number and total value of infrastructure projects rebounded markedly in 2018 and remained at that level throughout the first half of 2020 (Figure 22). Activity from 2019 onwards was predominantly in Western and Northern Member States, after activity in Southern Member States briefly returned to pre-euro area crisis levels in 2018. Activity through the first six months of 2020 reached about half the full-year levels. Compared with the levels for the first six months of previous years, the total value of projects brought to financial close was high in 2020, even if the concentration in Western and Northern Europe rose significantly and the number of projects was lower.

Since 2016, non-PPP project financing has become more important for communications equipment (Figure 23). Utilities – notably energy – remain the principal asset class financed in non-PPP projects, typically accounting for three-quarters of the total value and more than four-fifths of the number of projects. There has been a notable increase in the share of transport and especially communications projects since 2016, with the latter also helping to prop up volumes in the first half of 2020.

Figure 21

Annual distribution of PPP projects reaching financial close by asset class (in %)

Source: EPEC.

Note: Distribution across asset class of the total annual value in euros of PPPs brought to financial close in EU27. 2020 includes deals brought to financial close by 30 June 2020.

Figure 22

Annual value of non-PPP project by country group (EUR billion)

Source: IJ Global.

Note: Total annual value in billion euros of non-PPP projects brought to financial close in EU27. 2020 includes deals brought to financial close by 30 June 2020.

Figure 23

Annual non-PPP project activity by asset share

Source: IJ Global.

Note: Distribution across asset class of the total annual value in euros of non-PPP projects brought to financial close in EU27. 2020 includes deals brought to financial close by 30 June 2020.