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Jem Bendell and Rupert Read

Are you confused and concerned about what seems like the disruption or even breakdown of normal life? Do you worry about becoming stuck, not knowing what to do? Do you want to explore with others how to respond creatively at this difficult time? If so, then you share that intention with the contributors to this book. Until recently, most people in modern societies have not had much reason or opportunity to explore what an anticipation of greater societal disruption – or even collapse – might mean for their life choices. It has been a taboo subject, policed by the argument that to even discuss it would be unhelpful to individuals and society. To have any level of anticipation of societal breakdown or collapse, whether from a range of environmental, economic, political or technological factors, has been labelled as pessimism, alarmism, doomism, fatalism or defeatism. Such negative dismissals can discourage us from engaging in this topic any further. Unfortunately, such avoidance could lose us all precious time to explore what can be done and learned at this difficult moment, especially if our aim is to reduce harm while saving more of society and the natural world. It might mean we postpone the opportunity to rethink what is most important to us and align the rest of our lives with that. Therefore, we consider it would be defeatist to not even begin exploring what we can do to help in the face of massive societal disruption.

That is why we believe it is time for a book that discusses various implications of anticipating societal collapse. Deep Adaptation is an agenda and framework for responding to the potential, probable or inevitable collapse of industrial consumer societies, due to the direct and indirect impacts of human-caused climate change and environmental degradation. With the term ‘societal collapse’, we mean an uneven ending of industrial consumer modes of sustenance, shelter, health, security, pleasure, identity and meaning. Rather than an environmental, economic or political collapse, the word ‘societal’ is important as these uneven endings pervade society and challenge our place within it. The term ‘collapse’ does not necessarily mean that suddenness is likely but rather implies a form of breakdown in systems that is comprehensive and cannot be reversed to what it was before. The word ‘deep’ is intended to contrast the agenda with mainstream approaches to adaptation to climate impacts (Klein et al. 2015) by going deeper into the causes and potential responses within ourselves, our organizations and societies. People who engage in dialogue and initiative for deep adaptation believe that societal collapse in most or all countries of the world is likely, inevitable or already unfolding. Typically, such people believe that they will experience this disruption themselves or have already begun to do so, while recognizing that the disruptions may be first and worst in the global South. Deep adaptation describes the inner and outer, personal and collective, responses to either the anticipation or experience of societal collapse, worsened by the direct or indirect impacts of climate change.

The vulnerability of our normal ways of life was highlighted in 2020 when a virus triggered a series of cascading effects beyond its initial health impacts. To begin with, there were shortages of medicines, protective gear and food, then a slowdown of economic activity, domestic political upheavals, diplomatic and geopolitical conflicts, and the creation of large amounts of national debt to reduce, or postpone, economic shock. The sprouting of volunteer-led mutual aid in many locations is an indicator of the capacity of people to respond positively. While Covid-19 has posed a stress test for the globalized economy, it is also a stark reminder of what deeply matters in our daily lives and is a real-time dress rehearsal for future disasters and psychological unease (Read 2020: ch. 26; Gray 2020). When some people consider societal collapse to be an abstract and theoretical matter, it is worth noting that the United Nations has warned us that outbreaks of coronaviruses, including potentially ones more serious than Covid-19, are more likely because of both environmental destruction and climate change (United Nations 2020). That analysis means that disruptions from the indirect impacts of climate change are already being felt by most societies around the world.

To assess the probability and processes of societal collapse is a complex endeavour, as described by expert ‘collapsologists’ in chapter 3 of this book. Such assessments can draw on many disciplines of scholarship, including sociology, economics, politics, psychology, philosophy and agronomy, as well as composite fields such as climate science, environmental studies, futures studies, catastrophic risks, emergency management and disaster reduction (Servigne and Stevens 2020). This complexity therefore means that any commentary on the likelihood of societal collapse will derive from the specialism, mentality, identity and lived experience of the scholar. Most scholars are not experiencing the climate-worsened hunger and displacement that hundreds of millions of people are at the time of our writing (FAO 2018). Despite the inevitable bias towards normality within the many fields of scholarship that could give us an assessment of the likelihood of societal collapse, in recent years more experts have come forward with warnings. One of the fields where such warnings are now coming from is climate science (Moses 2020).

In November 2019, seven leading climate scientists published a review in the journal Nature which said that a collapse of society may be inevitable because nine of the fifteen known global climate tipping points that regulate the state of the planet may have already been activated (Lenton et al. 2019). Soon after, an opinion from five scientists on our climate situation was published in the journal Biosciences and signed by more than 11,000 scientists worldwide as a warning to humanity: ‘The climate crisis has arrived and is accelerating faster than most scientists expected . . . It is more severe than anticipated, threatening natural ecosystems and the fate of humanity . . .’ (Ripple et al. 2019). The reasons why climate change is so dangerous to humanity are described in chapter 2, and the reasons why climate scientists have been conservative in their statement of that risk are explained in chapter 1.

In 2020, two hundred scientists warned of ‘global systemic collapse’ becoming likely due to the way different climate and environmental stressors can interact and amplify each other. They explained that the true situation is not being understood or communicated well enough because ‘many scientists and policy-makers are embedded in institutions that are used to thinking and acting on isolated risks, one at a time’ (Future Earth 2020). Research analysts that are experienced in integrating multiple forms of information on multiple risks are to be found in the financial sector. An internal report by analysts from the largest bank in the United States, JP Morgan, is therefore relevant to the question of whether humanity will make the changes to avoid disaster. They assessed that

to meet the Paris 2ºC objective on the global temperature . . . would require the immediate elimination of 34% of the global coal-fired production capacity. The cost would involve not only the premature scrapping of these coal-fired power stations but also the increased investment in renewables. The end result could be energy shortages and higher electricity prices for consumers. It isn’t going to happen. (Guardian 2020)

Although we can and must increase efforts for significant reductions in carbon emissions and effective natural drawdown of carbon from the atmosphere, the recent science and analysis should not be ignored because it is too painful to consider. Unfortunately, new climate models are predicting much greater climate change than past models did (Johnson 2019). Already we are witnessing temperature changes in air and ocean that are at the extreme end of previous predictions, and with impacts on ecosystems that are in advance of what was anticipated (Nisbet et al. 2019). For instance, in May 2020 the previous 12 months were 1.3 degrees warmer than pre-industrial temperatures.¹ Such rapid climate change is a massive stress on ecological and human systems and is not something that humans can stop entirely. We must try to slow it down, but our efforts might not be very successful. Dangerous climate change is therefore in one important sense an unsolvable predicament which in our view will probably, or inevitably, lead to the collapse of industrial consumer societies. It is for this reason that we consider it useful in the title of this book to describe the instability we are creating as ‘climate chaos’ and that we will need to learn to ‘navigate’ varying levels of that chaos, rather than being able to ‘solve’ the ‘problem’ outright. For this is more than a problem, more even than a ‘wicked’ one. It is a tragedy and an ongoing series of disasters that provide a new condition for humankind along with the rest of life on earth (Foster 2015).

Some communities are already experiencing breakdowns due to direct or indirect impacts of climate change, as well as issues relating to epidemics, the failures of capitalism, and racial inequality, to name but a few stressors on societies (Future Earth 2020). More research is being done on assessing when and where societal breakdowns may occur, though that is very difficult to predict and such work could become a distraction from inquiry into the root causes and into rapid meaningful action. With this book, we wish to contribute to the field of inquiry and action that starts from an anticipation of societal collapse. In other words: what if we were actually to look the very real prospect of such collapse in the face, rather than always shying away from it or only attempting to prevent it? What might happen? What might we feel? What might shift? How might our plans and struggles – including perhaps those intended to mitigate the chaos – be transformed or energized?

We know first-hand how it is psychologically challenging to reach the conclusion that there will be massive disruption, or even collapse, of societies around the world, including the ones we live in. Not only is it difficult to allow this outlook into one’s awareness, it is difficult to live with it because to anticipate societal collapse means we feel personally vulnerable as well as afraid for the future of people dear to us. That psychological distress occurs even before we experience specific disruptions from the direct and indirect impacts of a degrading environment and growing public anxieties. The matter of emotional well-being is important within the deep adaptation agenda, as explored in chapter 4 on insights from psychology, as well as in chapter 8 on some of the psycho-spiritual implications. There are particular concerns about children and young people. We are acutely aware of how young people are growing up into a climate-disturbed future. For us, real solidarity with them must include efforts at practical and psychological adaptation to that future, rather than suppressing this difficult agenda. Some of the initial implications for education and schools are discussed in chapter 10.

The concept of deep adaptation and an associated framework for dialogue was created by the transdisciplinary sociologist and co-editor of this book, Professor Jem Bendell. It became popular in a paper released by the University of Cumbria in the United Kingdom (Bendell 2018). That paper was downloaded around a million times within a couple of years and influenced many people to join and lead climate activist groups (Green 2019). To support this movement, the Deep Adaptation Forum was launched in April 2019 to freely connect people who believe that deep adaptation provides a useful framework for them to respond to this predicament.² The Forum explains an intention to embody and enable loving responses to our predicament where we can help each other prepare in ways that may reduce harm, especially by reducing conflict and trauma. It is founded on a collective leadership philosophy, where generative dialogue is both a key modality and aim (Bendell, Sutherland and Little 2017). To help with that, Deep Adaptation involves a framework of four questions, providing people with a way of exploring those potential changes together. Outlined in chapter 2, they are called the 4Rs. What do we most value that we want to keep and how? That is a question of resilience. What could we let go of so as not to make matters worse? That is a question of relinquishment. What could we bring back to help us in these difficult times? That is a question of restoration. With what and with whom shall we make peace as we awaken to our common mortality? That is a question of reconciliation.

We continue to meet people who believe an anticipation of societal collapse is a credible perspective but who think it is unhelpful to articulate that or work from that basis. Our experience has been the opposite. After concluding that collapse is likely or inevitable, many people become very engaged in social and political action to slow dangerous climate change, reduce impacts, help each other and reverse injustices (Bendell and Cave 2020). Additionally, the more time we have to try to adapt, the more likely we can hold societies together to keep one another safe while cutting and drawing down carbon emissions (Read 2020a, 2020b; Foster et al. 2019).

Some of the resistance to deep adaptation may arise because it represents a fundamental break with the international policy paradigm of the past 30 years. Adopted at the UN in 1987, the concept of sustainable development suggests that it is possible to maintain capitalism while integrating concerns about the environment and society (Foster 2019). The deep adaptation perspective sees the pace and scale of dangerous levels of climate change and ecological degradation to be so fast that neither a reform of capitalism nor of modern society is realistic. Therefore, deep adaptation is a form of ‘post-sustainability’ thinking (ibid.). However, the concept does not equate societal collapse with ‘the end of the world’ or with near-term human extinction. It does not imply lessening our efforts at carbon cuts (mitigation) and drawdown (natural sequestration) but implies that efforts on those aims within the current system must pragmatically be considered likely to continue to fail to significantly reduce atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases; so now we must prepare for societal breakdown and ultimate collapse. If we fail to prepare for such failure, then we are preparing to fail ourselves and our children even more.

By inviting attention to whether an assumption of the continuation of modern society is tenable, a deep adaptation perspective suggests rethinking mainstream approaches to climate change adaptation (CCA). The most resonance with mainstream climate adaptation is in the field of ideas and practices becoming known as ‘transformative adaptation’. Such approaches anticipate the need for systemic change in modes of production, trade and lifestyle to both reduce carbon and be less reliant on the stability of existing ecosystems (Coulter, Serrao-Neumann and Coiacetto 2019). In future, we anticipate a coming together of transformative and deep adaptation as a complement to bolder attempts at carbon cuts and drawdown.

In any future dialogue between people working with different analyses of the predicament we are in, it will be important to recognize how ‘collapse anticipation’ produces a distinctly original paradigm for reflection, learning and action. So much of what people have hitherto taken for granted can be questioned. Therefore, the chapters in this book are merely illustrative of an agenda which offers no simple answers but hopefully provides ways of reaching meaningful answers for your own context.

In Part I, the predicament of facing societal collapse is presented in three chapters. We explain in chapter 1 how, for decades, the field of climate science has been conservative in its assessment of the risks facing humanity. The situation is now far worse than tends to be reported in individual climate studies or by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In chapter 2, a revised version of the original deep adaptation paper by Dr Jem Bendell presents the case for human-triggered climate change having become unavoidably dangerous and explains why the contemporary environmental movement and profession have remained in denial of that reality. The original paper was intended for people researching, educating and practising within the corporate sustainability field, and the chapter retains the original focus and style. In chapter 3, Dr Pablo Servigne and a group of scholars who focus on the science of societal collapse, or ‘collapsology’, provide an overview of the state of knowledge to make the case that collapse anticipation is a credible starting point for both research and policy development.

In Part II, the ‘shifts in being’ that can occur – and be supported – as we anticipate societal collapse are explored in five chapters. In chapter 4, psychologist and co-founder of the Climate Psychology Alliance Dr Adrian Tait describes the ways in which the psychotherapy profession must – and is beginning to – change in response to growing public eco-distress. In chapter 5, Jem Bendell tackles the subject of how we can avoid making our bad situation worse by sharing insights on the ideology that he believes is at the root of our predicament. He explains how this destructive ideology has been mainstreamed and maintained by the monetary system. A similar theme is developed further in chapter 6 by Rene Suša and her colleagues, who work on developing and articulating their analysis of indigenous persons in the global predicament. They argue that people have become addicted to patterns of thought which will hamper our abilities to respond to collapse, and they offer some ideas to help break those addictions. How to apply these critiques in new ways of organizing interactions on deep adaptation is important. Therefore, in chapter 7, the senior facilitator of the Deep Adaptation Forum joins Jem Bendell to explain the rationale and some modalities for facilitating connection and conversation about our predicament. This part of the book is completed in chapter 8 by environmental philosopher Joanna Macy and her colleague Professor Sean Kelly. In a more informal and heartfelt discussion of the topic, they draw on ancient wisdom to provide some reflections on how we might discover strength during the difficult times ahead.

In Part III, some of the ‘shifts in doing’ that occur when people anticipate societal collapse are explored in four chapters. In chapter 9, renowned leadership scholar Professor Jonathan Gosling explores possible ways of leading in response to increasing turbulence in society. He explains how traditional understandings and enactments of leadership will be unhelpful. Instead, leadership of adaptation is diverse and sometimes hardly recognizable as leadership. One of its key effects, he argues, is enabling equanimity in anxiety-provoking circumstances. In chapter 10, education specialist Dr Charlotte von Bülow explores new approaches to schooling and education that are necessary in the face of the climate emergency. In chapter 11, by drawing on his experience as a spokesperson and political advisor with the activist group Extinction Rebellion, as well as his work as a political philosopher, Professor Rupert Read shares his ideas on the future of politics and activism in the face of societal collapse. He explains how the systemic economic and political drivers of the ecological and climate crisis mean that a radical and transformative political agenda is essential for the future of deep adaptation. In chapter 12, community currency expert Matthew Slater and Extinction Rebellion founder member Skeena Rathor explain why and how ‘relocalization’ of economies and societies is an important part of the response to climate chaos. They describe how future relocalization efforts could benefit from incorporating a co-liberation philosophy and supporting international action for policies that enable localization and climate justice.

As a first edited collection on this huge topic, we realize that the coverage of issues and the diversity of voices will be insufficient. We are particularly aware that at the time of writing, like most readers of this book, we are not involved in high-intensity situations of societal disruption and collapse. Over time, we intend to both hear and support more diverse voices and participate in more practical solidarity for people who are suffering the consequences of societal disruption and collapse. Therefore, in the concluding chapter, we discuss a range of live issues within the emerging field of deep adaptation.

As you read this book, it is likely you will be witnessing situations where lifestyles, livelihoods and outlooks are being disrupted. Those disruptions will probably be reported in most mass media without foregrounding our degrading environment. Looking behind the headlines, there is credible evidence that all manner of disruptions, including rising prices, coronaviruses, financial instability, mental illness, displaced persons and xenophobia, are being made worse by the declining health and stability of our natural world. Unfortunately, the Club of Rome was right. In 1972, their bestselling report on the Limits to Growth predicted that humanity would be experiencing difficulties now due to our impact on the natural world (Meadows et al. 1972). Unless more people today make the connections between the many difficulties faced and ask questions about how modern humans have generated them, societies will lose the opportunity to learn and change. We intend this book to help you make fuller sense of the many disruptions around you so you can invite your friends, colleagues and community members to join you in reconsidering the fundamentals of our societies and our relationship with the natural world. Whatever happens, the opportunity to learn from this unfolding global disaster is still ours to seize.