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1 1. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

2 2. The above 370 ppm CO2 level would translate to about 3°C overall heating if we assume Pliocene CO2 to be close to the lower estimate, 365 ppm, or 2°C further heating as we have already reached 1°C. At the high end of the estimate, 415 ppm, we assume that 415 – 280 =135 ppm excess CO2 would lead to 3°C warming, but 370 – 280 = 90 ppm excess CO2 to 90/135*3 = 2°C total, or 1°C additional warming.

3 3. In normal science contexts, scientists tell the truth by being careful to avoid ‘type 1’ errors, ‘false positives’. But in post-normal science, it is much more important to avoid ‘type 2’ errors, ‘false negatives’. As we have explained, scientists find this very uncomfortable. They are desperate to avoid being dubbed ‘alarmists’, while they are happy to allow that ‘more research is needed’. This means that science is virtually always behind the curve – whereas in post-normal science we need to be always, precautionarily, ahead of the curve. Otherwise, we don’t get to crush the curve, which is what we need to do: in regard to climate just as much as to epidemics.

4 4. Reframed in terms of the agenda of Extinction Rebellion, what we are talking about in this chapter comes of course under the general heading of XR’s first demand, ‘Tell the truth’. We are saying: you aren’t telling the truth unless you get serious about avoiding type 2 errors. You aren’t telling the truth unless you sketch scenarios, especially of/from fat-tails, to avoid at all costs. You aren’t telling the truth, furthermore, if you undermine in the manner of your presentation the gravity of its content. If you describe a fat tail completely emotionlessly and with no suggestion that this impending scenario may require one to do something other than just keep turning up to work, then you aren’t telling the truth.