Читать книгу Sustainable Agriculture Systems and Technologies - Группа авторов - Страница 54

This result is based on the statistical model generated for the possible decline of COVID‐19 cases and their duration in the country or impact based on parameters such as GDP, control rate, facilities, economic measures, and government policies. Here, the results are based partly on the possible recovery rates, which present a daily increase of 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2%, and the timeline is set from 21 April 2020. The forecast predicts a cause for concern for the country. Even the precedented recovery rate 1 is 0.5%, recovery rate 2 is 1%, recovery rate 3 is 1.5%, and recovery rate 4 is 2% are assumed, it would take almost one year and nine months, 10 months, eight months, and five months respective recovery rate to completely recover from the pandemic. The decline in the number of the confirmed cases is the steepest and directly proportional to an increase in the recovery rates. Therefore, this hypothesis is totally based on the abovementioned parameters and how effectively they are executed in preventing the spread of this pandemic. It indicates the possible range of minimum and maximum duration required by the country to recover from this pandemic (Figure 4.1).