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Part I
The Motivation for Change
Chapter 1
The Five Forces Driving the Need for Change
ОглавлениеTo prepare for [the] future, it is vital to understand that the greatest threat to progress is the inability to see around corners, the inability to respect our past and the unwillingness to realize that the way we succeeded is not the way we will succeed.
– Thomas Harrison, Chairman Emeritus, DAS at Omnicom Group (2012)
This Chapter Is about Inspiring You to Go Beyond Advertising. Why?
When we asked our Advertising 2020 contributors about what the future could and should hold – what was both necessary and possible – they scanned the horizon from their respective vantage points across disciplines and around the world and brought into focus an unprecedented convergence and interaction of extremely fast-moving trends, highly disruptive insights, and rapidly emerging capabilities that we will experience just a few years hence. A world that is becoming a reality in our daily lives, now.
As John M. Baker, CMO of Mirum Agency, notes, “The challenge with predicting the future is something science fiction writers talk about all of the time. Aside from the difficulty of getting it right, the hard part is balancing the consistency of human experience with the pace of change in technology” (2012). By asking what could and should advertising look like, we privileged aspiration over accuracy. By asking experts immersed in many different industries, we gathered together the viewpoints best suited to balance experience and change. The result: points of view that brought to life dramatic worldwide transformations that have occurred in recent years, impacting everything we once thought we knew about how enterprises communicate and connect with the customers they desire. Initially identified as game-changers for the world of marketing and advertising, these forces are rapidly and irrevocably reverberating across all roles in the executive ranks – especially as they are being redefined and realigned – and throughout their organizations, challenging entrenched assumptions, mindsets, and methodologies.
A power trio from Doremus – Evelyn Neill, executive creative director; Howard Sherman, president and CEO; and Mathew Don, chief innovation officer – paint an evocative image of where we're headed:
Technology is geography (it's one world)
Sustainability is efficiency (greener is cheaper)
Each person is empowered (freer to soar & freer to fall)
These obvious points capture a snapshot of wonders – the ubiquity of Internet-facilitated revolutions, the rise of efficient technology, and the high cost of fuel that is inspiring it. The rise of the individual voice thanks to the technological amplification of that voice. The crumbling of the paternal employer and blue chip safety – replaced by the empowered, mobile, entrepreneurial, global, untethered, and unprotected individual finding his or her way in the world. It's a marvelous, dangerous, adventuresome world. A veritable plugged-in Dickens novel (2012).
However, as we talk with executives in our Wharton Future of Advertising workshops and in Jerry's Wharton Fellows Programs, as well as with our students, there still seems to be an underestimation of just how these forces – and their interdependencies – will change established approaches. And, equally important, that they offer tremendous transformational capital to get at some of the most intractable issues facing business leaders today.
That's why the visionary thinking of our 200+ Advertising 2020 contributors is so essential. From them we distilled five key themes to help focus your thinking and spur you to take action (see Figure 1.1).
Figure 1.1 The Five Forces of Change to Motivate and Enable
And just for good measure, add to the transformative nature of each of these forces the exponential rate of change, the magnitude of change, and the complexity and interdependencies among the forces. As Thomas Burkhardt, global brand builder, puts it, “Following the mantra that ‘the future is already out there, it’s just not very evenly distributed' we are already seeing today what will be even more necessary and prevalent in at the beginning of the next decade” (2013).
Bob Greenberg, executive director of Advertising Week Experience (AWE) brings these ideas to life in “Two Letters from 2020:”
THE FUTURE
To: Brands and their agencies
From: A customer
I was born in 2000. I'm 20 now. Just graduated college and starting my own life. Voting in my first presidential election this year – psyched!
I've grown up with mobile devices.
You used to call them “smart-phones” – quaint!
I have one in my pocket as intelligent as the Watson computer that humiliated Brad Rutter on Jeopardy 10 years ago.
And everything around me now tells its own story.
From buildings, to packages, to images, to products and more.
Like that car? Dog? Person? I just point my mobile device, click and learn all about them.
I carry my favorite companies in my pocket.
They're like having friends in the industry. They advise, consult, and propose, based on a deep understanding of … well, me. Not some cohort or quintile or special interest group.
And they'll stay my favorites as long as they anticipate my needs and provide services that make my life easier.
I don't own a TV. Not one like my Dad's, anyway.
Oh I have screens all right – big, thin, light, cheap, smart ones. And I have little screens, too. They're in my pocket, on my wrist, in my glasses, and in my car.
I never had a DVR.
Everything, and I mean everything, is waiting for me in the sky somewhere until I want it.
TV networks are a fading memory.
There are hundreds of “Networks” now and they don't “telecast” anymore, They “custom-cast”.
I've completely personalized my content – 24/7.
Now 360-degree imagery lets me control my point-of-view … not the networks', mine! Actually, they're not really “Networks” anymore, they're “Servers,” in every sense of the word.
And now I've become the “Manufacturer.”
I'm downloading “Product Access Keys.” They let me “manufacture” stuff at home on my 3D printer – kind of like Grandma's fax machine, only it “prints” clothing, jewelry, appliances – whatever – right in my living room, and fast – so no waiting!
I don't use money anymore – not like my Mom does, anyway.
And I don't shop in stores anymore, unless it's exciting, fun, and a cool “hands-on” experience. I don't need to kick the tires … unless they kick something back to me.
Actually, lots of sites let you “feel” what's on the screen. Talk about “hands-on” experience!
These days my friends and I are saying; “Don't Hype me, Skype me.”
We're dealing with humans now, face-to-face! Not always flesh-and-blood humans, but live people who get me. And some who just seem live, but they have all the answers, so what's the difference?
I don't go to “www” much anymore.
What you once called “apps” are now full-blown, interpretive “servicesites.” For example, I have one for travel that “thinks “through my entire trip for me.
From wake-ups, to traffic, all the way to what's on the screens in my hotel room, taxi reservations, meals, shopping, siteseeing, nightlife – everything!
Are they “sponsored”? Of course – by service providers I choose! Privacy, schmivacy.
Back in the twenty-teens GPS was already telling you where I was located.
But you've always wanted to know more about me.
Stop guessing. I'll actually tell you what I'm wishing for, hoping for, and in the market for. But abuse that info at your own peril.
And it's gonna cost you: relevant information plus … points, awards, recognition, cash – make it exciting, I'm worth it!
So what's the difference between where you are and 2020? Attitude!
I suppose you're thinking that you have years to go before you get to 2020. But I guess the big question is – will you survive the trip?
Maybe loyally yours,
The Customer
To: All agencies and clients
From: One of your own
Guys, it's a different world out here! It's so … well … 2020! Supermarkets are connected to customer's refrigerators.
Doctors now track years-worth of patients' vital info – instantly!
Digital health, fitness, and well-being “connectivity” is off the charts. And there's remote “Help” diagnostics for everything. Our bodies, machines, appliances, cars, you name it!
Speaking of cars, they've become rolling, connected marketing platforms. They practically drive themselves, actually … nahhh – you wouldn't believe it!
Facial, Voice, and Gesture recognition and Haptics now enable people to interact with machines in incredible new ways!
And we now have a much clearer idea of each of our customer's multidimensional, changing-all-the-time lives.
We realized Big Data isn't about Big Brother, it's about Big Helper.
The killer point is we now have the capability to anticipate customers' needs and desires. And it's not like we had a choice – we had to!
Our big epiphany was that “caveat emptor” has made a 180-degree turn! Now it's truly “Caveat Venditor – Seller Beware.”
2020 is a new era, where the customer is no longer king – now she's a goddess!
Brands are in her hands. She can make or break our reputation with a keystroke.
She's not only involved in driving the perception of our companies, but also in creating our goods and services.
Sounds scary? Not really. But we have to rethink ourselves. We're now service providers in the new service society.
But if we didn't learn to treat our customers this way, it would've been game over!
Brands were always about trust. Well, now we have the wherewithal and motivation to truly walk that talk. To interpret, align, advise, educate, service, and inspire. And provide unified services and solutions for all of our customers (2012).
How else are all of these forces converging and interacting? Advances in technology and the power of mobile devices coupled with continuously emerging and evolving social media platforms have empowered people to gain a far more equal status with the companies and organizations who promote and deliver (or not) products and services and who take clear responsibility (or not) for their societal impact. And yet this empowering technology sparks skepticism in this same individual: how is all this private data captured from my mobile device and my online activity being used and safeguarded (or not)? This caution, in turn, has yielded demands and standards of technology.
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