Читать книгу All sciences. №8, 2023. International Scientific Journal - Ibratjon Xatamovich Aliyev - Страница 7

The study of new earthquake precursors to address issues of short- and medium-term forecasting of the prameters of upcoming earthquakes. To achieve this goal, this work uses an indirect method of measuring controlled parameters, constant monitoring of the studied values and statistical methods of data processing, including regression analysis methods.

An information-measuring system is proposed for studying the correlation between earthquakes and neutron and charged particle fluxes emanating from the Earth’s crust, as well as a method for calibrating this information-measuring system.

This work uses an experimental research method. An indirect method of measuring earthquake parameters, such as magnitude, hypocenter coordinates, is proposed.

The results of preliminary experiments are presented. Informative signs are described, the presence of which makes it possible to predict the parameters of upcoming earthquakes. The minimum number of implementations necessary for constructing regression models of earthquake parameters has been determined. A block diagram of the parts of the information and measurement system, through which preliminary experiments were carried out, is also given. The method of calibration of the entire information and measurement system is described.

The main conclusions. During the analysis of the results of preliminary experiments conducted at different times in the cities of Tashkent and Ferghana, an assumption arose about the existence of a correlation between the parameters of an earthquake and neutron and charged particle fluxes, i.e. neutron and charged particle fluxes carry informative signs about upcoming earthquakes in the near future. According to this assumption, they can be attributed to the precursors of earthquakes.

An information and measurement system is proposed that will allow in-depth study of the relationship between the parameters of the upcoming earthquake and the fluxes of neutrons and charged particles by continuously monitoring them and subsequent statistical processing of accumulated data.

The conditions for the prediction of all parameters of the upcoming earthquake, such as the hypocenter, magnitude and time of the upcoming earthquakes, are determined.