Читать книгу Connected: The Amazing Power of Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives - James Fowler - Страница 12

It turns out that people do not copy only their friends. They also copy their friends’ friends, and their friends’ friends’ friends. In the children’s game telephone, a message is passed along a line by each child whispering into the next child’s ear. The message each child receives contains all the errors introduced by the child sharing it as well as those introduced by prior children to whom the child is not directly connected. In this way, children can come to copy others to whom they are not directly tied. Similarly, every parent warns children not to put money in their mouths: the money, we think, contains germs from numerous people whose hands it has passed through, and not just from the most recent pair of hands. Analogously, our friends and family can influence us to do things, like gain weight or show up at the polls. But their friends and family can influence us too. This is an illustration of hyperdyadic spread, or the tendency of effects to spread from person to person to person, beyond an individual’s direct social ties. Corto’s brother lost his life because of such spread.

It is easy to think about hyperdyadic effects when the network is a straight line—(“that guy three people down the line better pass the bucket, or we’re all going to be in big trouble”). But how on earth can they be understood in a natural social network such as the college students in the illustration on page 14, or complex networks of thousands of people with all kinds of crosscutting paths stretching far beyond the social horizon (as we will consider later)? To decipher what is going on, we need two kinds of information. First, we must look beyond simple, sequential dyads: we need to know about individuals and their friends, their friends’ friends, their friends’ friends’ friends, and so on. And we can only get this information by observing the whole network at once. It has just recently become possible to do this on a large scale. Second, if we want to observe how things flow from person to person to person, then we need information about the ties and the people they connect at more than one point in time, otherwise we have no hope of understanding the dynamic properties of the network. It would be like trying to learn the rules of an unfamiliar sport by looking at a single snapshot of a game.

We will consider many examples and varieties of hyperdyadic spread, but we can set the stage with a simple one. The usual way we think about contagion is that if one person has something and comes into contact with another person, that contact is enough for the second person to get it. You can become infected with a germ (the most straightforward example) or with a piece of gossip or information (a less obvious example). Once you get infected by a single person, additional contact with others is generally redundant. For example, if you have been told accurately that stock XYZ closed at $50, another person telling you the same thing does not add much. And you can pass this information on to someone else all by yourself.

But some things—like norms and behaviors—might not spread this way. They might require a more complex process that involves reinforcement by multiple social contacts. If so, then a network arranged as a simple line, like a bucket brigade, might not support transmission of more complicated phenomena. If we wanted to get people to quit smoking, we would not arrange them in a line and get the first one to quit and tell him to pass it on. Rather, we would surround a smoker with multiple nonsmokers, perhaps in a squad.

Psychologist Stanley Milgram’s famous sidewalk experiment illustrates the importance of reinforcement from multiple people. ¹² On two cold winter afternoons in New York City in 1968, Milgram observed the behavior of 1,424 pedestrians as they walked along a fifty-foot length of street. He positioned “stimulus crowds,” ranging in size from one to fifteen research assistants, on the sidewalk. On cue, these artificial crowds would stop and look up at a window on the sixth floor of a nearby building for precisely one minute. There was nothing interesting in the window, just another guy working for Milgram. The results were filmed, and assistants later counted the number of people who stopped or looked where the stimulus crowd was looking. While 4 percent of the pedestrians stopped alongside a “crowd” composed of a single individual looking up, 40 percent stopped when there were fifteen people in the stimulus crowd. Evidently, the decisions of passersby to copy a behavior were influenced by the size of the crowd exhibiting it.

An even larger percentage of pedestrians copied the behavior incompletely: they looked up in the direction of the stimulus crowd’s gaze but did not stop. While one person influenced 42 percent of passersby to look up, 86 percent of the passersby looked up if fifteen people were looking up. More interesting than this difference, however, was that a stimulus crowd of five people was able to induce almost as many passersby to look up as fifteen people did. That is, in this setting, crowds larger than five did not have much more of an effect on the actions of passing individuals.