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In this chapter you’ll learn how to determine the right pace for you on long runs and in your half marathon race. Veterans will learn how much improvement can be expected, and whether they are on track for the goal at various times in the training program. As you approach your goal at the end of the program, you can use the “Galloway Performance Predictor” to determine what you will be capable of running in your race–and how to make adjustments for temperature.

PREDICTION STRATEGY: ONE-MILE TIME TRIAL (TT) OR TEST

About 1995 I started using a one-mile time trial (called a “magic mile”) as a prediction tool. After working with hundreds and then thousands of runners, I’ve found that those who do three to four of these during a season can get a very realistic prediction of their current racing potential. By adding 2 min/mi to this time, runners will find an injury-reducing pace for the long runs–and a realistic pace for the race itself.

IN ORDER TO RUN THE TIME IN THE RACE INDICATED BY GALLOWAY’S PERFORMANCE PREDICTOR:

• You have done the training necessary for the goal–according to the training programs in this book

• You are not injured

• You run with an even-paced effort

• The weather on goal race day is not adverse (below 60°F or 14°C, no strong headwinds, no heavy rain or snow, etc.)

• There are no crowds to run through, or significant hills

THE “MAGIC MILE” TIME TRIAL

1. Go to a track, or other accurately measured course. One-mile is 4 laps around a track.

2. Warm up by walking for 5 minutes, then running 1 minute and walking 1 minute, then jogging an easy 800 meters (half mile or two laps around a track).

3. Do 4 acceleration-gliders. These are listed in the “Drills” chapter.

4. Walk for 3-4 minutes

5. Run fast–for you–for 4 laps. Use the walk break suggestions in this chapter, or run the way you want.

6. On your first time trial, don’t run all-out from the start–ease into your pace after the first half (2 laps).

7. Warm down by reversing the warm-up.

8. A school track is the best venue. Don’t use a treadmill because they tend to be notoriously uncalibrated, and often tell you that you ran farther or faster than you really did.

9. On each successive one, try to adjust pace in order to run a faster time.

10. Use the following formula to see what time is predicted in the goal races.

HOW HARD SHOULD I RUN THE TEST

During the first month of the program, run the magic mile once a week, in the middle of a Tuesday or Thursday run. The first one should be only slightly faster than you normally run. With each successive TT, pick up the pace and beat your time each week. By the fourth week, you should be running fairly close to your potential.

Run the first lap slightly slower than you think you can average. Take a short walk break as noted in the walk break suggestions in this chapter. If you aren’t huffing and puffing you can pick up the pace a bit on the second lap. If you are huffing after the first lap, then just hold your pace on lap two–or reduce it slightly. Most runners benefit from taking a walk break after the second lap.

At the end of lap 3, the walk break is optional. It is OK to be breathing hard on the last lap. If you are slowing down on the last lap, start a little slower on the next test. When you finish, you should feel like you couldn’t run more than about half a lap farther at that pace (if that). You may find that you don’t need many walk breaks during the test– experiment and adjust.

GALLOWAY’S PERFORMANCE PREDICTOR

Step 1:Run your “magic mile” time trial (TT) (4 laps around the track).

Step 2:Compute your mile pace for the half marathon by multiplying by 1.2.

Example:

Mile time: 10:00

For half marathon pace, multiply 10 x 1.2 = 12 min/mi

For long run training pace, add 3 minutes per mile = 15 min/per mile

One-mile Time	(x 1.2) FAST Half Mar Pace	(add 2 min/mi) Long Run Training Pace
5:00	6:00	9:00
5:30	6:37	9:40
6:00	7:12	10:15
6:30	7:48	10:50
7:00	8:24	11:30
7:30	9:00	12:00
8:00	9:36	12:40
8:30	10:12	13:15
9:00	10:48	13:50
9:30	11:24	14:30
10:00	12:00	15:00
10:30	12:36	15:40
11:00	13:12	16:15
11:30	13:48	16:50
12:00	14:24	17:30
12:30	15:00	18:00
13:00	15:36	18:40
13:30	16:12	19:15
14:00	16:48	19:50
14:30	17:24	20:30
15:00	18:00	21:00
15:30	18:36	21:40
16:00	19:12	22:15

Note:

The 1.2 multiplier assumes that you will be running about all-out effort by the end of the half marathon. Below 8 minutes, take a short break at the 800 or run continuously.

WALK BREAKS DURING THE ONE-MILE TIME TRIAL

Pace of the one-mile TT	# of seconds walking
8:00	5-10 sec every 2 laps
8:30	8-12 sec every 2 laps
9:00	10-15 sec every 2 laps
9:30	12-18 sec every 2 laps
10:00	5-8 sec every lap
10:30	7-10 sec every lap
11:00	9-12 sec every lap
11:30	10-15 sec every lap
12:00	11-16 sec every lap
12:30	12-17 sec every lap
13:00	13-18 sec every lap
13:30	14-19 sec every lap
14:00	15-20 sec every lap
14:30	16-21 sec every lap
15:00	17-22 sec every lap
15:30	18-23 sec every lap
16:00	19-24 sec every lap

FIRST-TIME HALF MARATHONERS: RUN TO FINISH ONLY

I strongly recommend that first-time half marathon runners should not attempt a time goal. Use the one-mile time trial to determine your long run pace (adding 3 minutes to the time multiplied by 1.2). During the race itself, I recommend running the first 10 miles at your training pace. During the last 3 miles you may run as you wish.

TIME GOAL RUNNERS MAY MAKE A “LEAP OF FAITH” GOAL PREDICTION

I have no problem allowing my e-coach athletes, who’ve run one or more half marathons, to choose a goal time that is faster than that predicted by the pre-test. As you do the speed training, the long runs and your test races, you should improve…but how much? In my experience this “leap of faith” should not exceed 3-5% improvement in a three-month training program.

1. Run the one-mile time trial.

2. Use the formula above to predict what you could run now, if you were trained for the half marathon.

3. Choose the amount of improvement during the training program (3-5%).

4. Subtract this from # 2–this is your goal time.

HOW MUCH OF A “LEAP OF FAITH”?

Over a 2-3 month training program
Half marathon pre-test prediction	3% Improvement	5% Improvement
1:20 h	2:12 m	4:00 m
1:40 h	3:00 m	5:00 m
2:00 h	3:36 m	6:00 m
2:30 h	4:30 m	7:30 m
3:00 h	5:24 m	9:00 m

Half marathon finish time improvement
Pre-test prediction	3%	5%
3:00 h	2:54:36 m	2:51:00 m
2:30 h	2:25:30 m	2:22:30 m
2:00 h	1:56:24 m	1:54:00 m

The key to goal setting is keeping your ego in check. From my experience, I have found that a 3% improvement is realistic. This means that if your half marathon time is predicted to be 3:00, then it is realistic to assume you could lower it by five and a half minutes if you do the speed training and the long runs as noted on my training schedules in this book. The maximum improvement, which is less likely, is a more aggressive 5% or 9 minutes off a three-hour half marathon.

In both of these situations, however, everything must come together to produce the predicted result. Even runners who shoot for a 3% improvement, do all the training as described, achieve their goal slightly more than 50% of the time during a racing season. The more aggressive performances usually result in success about 20% of the time. There are many factors that determine a time goal in a half marathon that are outside of your control: weather, terrain, infection, etc.

“MAGIC MILE” TIME TRIALS (TTS) GIVE YOU A REALITY CHECK

• Follow the same format as listed in the pre-test.

• By doing this as noted, you will learn how to pace yourself.

• Hint: it’s better to start a bit more slowly than you think you can run.

• Walk breaks will be helpful for most runners. Read the section in this book for suggested ratios.

• Note whether you are speeding up or slowing down at the end, and adjust in the next TT.

• If you are not making progress then look for reasons and take action.

REASONS WHY YOU MAY NOT BE IMPROVING

1. You’re overtrained and tired–if so, reduce your training, and/or take an extra rest day.

2. You may have chosen a goal that is too ambitious for your current ability.

3. You may have missed some of your workouts, or not been as regular with your training as needed.

4. The temperature may have been above 60°F (14°C). Above this, you will slow down (the longer the race, the bigger the effect heat will have on the result).

5. You ran the first lap or two too fast.

FINAL REALITY CHECK

Take the last four TTs, and eliminate the slowest time. Average the three remaining times to get a good prediction in your goal race. If the tests are predicting a time that is slower than the goal you’ve been training for, go with the time predicted by the “magic miles.” It is strongly recommended that you run the first one-third of your goal race a few seconds per mile slower than the pace predicted by the TT average.

USE A JOURNAL!

Read the chapter on using a journal. Your chance of reaching your goal increases greatly when you use this very important instrument. Psychologically, you start taking responsibility for the fulfillment of your mission when you use a journal.

Note:

During my competitive years, and the first decade I worked with other runners, I found a very beneficial prediction tool in Computerized Running Training Programs by Gerry Purdy and James Gardner. This book has been revised and re-published in print and software as Running Trax, by Track and Field News. This is a great resource and I highly recommend it.