Читать книгу Photovoltaic Module Reliability - John H. Wohlgemuth - Страница 11

To outsiders, it may seem like PV appeared quickly out of nowhere. In reality, the technology has been under development for a long time. Let's take a brief look at the history of PV.

 Edmond Becquerel discovered the PV effect in 1839. So, PV is certainly not a new technology [5].

 Albert Einstein published a paper explaining how the PV effect worked in 1905. In 1921, he received the Nobel Prize in Physics for his discovery of how the PV effect works [6]. PV was a lot less controversial than relativity at that time.

 In 1954, a group at Bell Laboratories developed the first practical silicon solar cells [7].

 The Bell Laboratories development was just in time for PV to provide power for all of the US satellites designed to perform in space for more than a few days. Vanguard 1 launched in March 1958, was powered by PV and continued to transmit data back to earth for six years [8], while purely battery‐powered satellites typically only provided data for a few months. Most US satellites continue to use PV as their primary energy supply. This means that your satellite weather forecasts, long‐distance communications and TV signals have always been powered by PV. Most of us have been taking advantage of PV in this way for decades.

 In the 1970s, a terrestrial PV business was developed by two small companies (Solarex Corporation and Sensor Technology) to provide power systems for remote applications. In these remote site applications, PV was cost effective even at a $20–$40/Wp cost for modules. These remote applications included telecommunications, weather stations, navigational aids, water pumping, fence charging, remote vacation homes and cathodic protection.

 Partially because of the US energy crises of 1973 and 1979, the US government began an expanded effort in renewable energies. The Flat‐Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project, funded by the US Government and managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, was formed in 1975 to develop the flat‐plate module and array technologies needed to attain widespread terrestrial use of PV [9]. While many important developments came out of this effort, three had particularly important impacts on future PV efforts. The first was the initial efforts to evaluate the potential for PV technologies to undergo significant cost reductions and, therefore, eventually compete with traditional sources of electricity. The second was the proof that PV modules could be assembled into larger‐scale systems that could then power real‐world applications. The third was the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Block Buy Program to be discussed in more detail in Chapter 4. This effort led to the use of acceleration stress tests and the establishment of qualification tests for PV modules. This went a long way toward improving the reliability and increasing the service life of PV modules.

 The election of Ronald Reagan to the Presidency in 1980 resulted in a huge setback for PV. The national budget for PV was slashed drastically and PV research in the US dropped to a small fraction of what it had been under Jimmy Carter's Administration. As a result, PV progress slowed appreciably and the center of PV development shifted away from the US to Europe and Asia.

 In 1994, The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI, formerly called MITI) launched a subsidy program for residential PV systems with an overall goal of installing 4.82 GW of PV by 2010. The program was launched with a subsidy of 50% of the cost of the PV system. The program attracted homeowners not only because of the subsidy, but also because the residential electricity rates in Japan were about 24 Yen/kWh equivalent to about $0.24/kWh at that time, among the highest residential rates in the world. On the other hand, mortgage interest rates in Japan are low (1–2%) and were extendable to cover the costs of residential PV systems. From 1994 until 2003, the Japanese PV market grew steadily by about 30% a year even though the subsidy level was reduced every year. By 2003, the Japanese market was the largest in the world, representing >40% of the world's PV demand.

 Germany used a different approach to subsidizing PV systems. Rather than assisting with the initial purchase as was done in Japan, the German program pays a rate or tariff‐based incentive on the electricity actually produced. The PV system owner is paid a specified rate for each kWh produced by the PV system. While such a program had been ongoing in Germany since the late 1990s, a change in the structure of the incentive program that began in 2004, resulted in explosive growth of the German PV market in 2004 and 2005. The feed in tariff rates were established at €45.7 ¢/kWh for ground mounted systems (with a 6.5% annual reduction), at €57.4 ¢/kWh for rooftop residential and at ~€54 ¢/kWh for rooftop commercial (with a 5% annual reduction). In addition to the feed in tariff, preferential loans were made available for PV. This whole program was focused on PV's C02 lowering potential. In Germany, the incentive for PV went from environmental to economic with significant financial returns earned via investment in PV systems. In 2004, the German PV market more than doubled, overtaking Japan as the world's largest PV market. The dramatic market growth was actually constrained in late 2004 and 2005 by lack of module availability.

 In the mid‐2000s, China began to realize that PV was going to be an important energy industry and so Chinese companies began manufacturing PV modules. By 2010, an appreciable share of PV modules in the world was being produced in China. By 2015/2016 a majority of all PV modules manufactured in the world were being made in China. The volume has continued to grow since then. The combination of large‐volume production and low costs for labor and infrastructure has led to dramatic decreases in the selling price for PV modules. According to Paula Mints [4] average worldwide module costs have gone from $3.00 to $4.00 per watt in 2007/2008 to less than $0.5 per watt in 2018.

The combination of market need, driven by feed in tariffs and the building of large factories in China led to an explosive growth in the PV industry. With the low cost of modules today, PV is competing successfully with conventional forms of electricity generation. Large (>100 MW) PV systems are being installed around the world with China leading the way both as producer and consumer of PV modules. For a detailed account of the history of how the Photovoltaic Industry began see Peter Varadi's book entitled “Sun Above the Horizon” [10]. For a detailed description of how the PV industry was able to grow so rapidly see Peter's book entitled “Sun Towards High Noon” [11].