Читать книгу Oceans For Dummies - Joseph Kraynak - Страница 69

We humans tend to lose perspective over time as we gradually become accustomed to change. For example, as you age, you probably don’t notice the little differences from year to year. Then, for some strange reason, you look at a photo of yourself 20 years ago and, crikey, what happened?!

In statistics, this phenomenon is referred to as a shifting baseline, which involves comparing something to a reference point (baseline) which may already represent a significant change from a previous reference point. With a shifting baseline, the condition of the ocean doesn’t look so bad when you return to the same beach year after year.

Instead of comparing ocean life to that of 10 or 20 years ago, compare it to a truly untouched and healthy ecosystem. Building on the beach example, instead of comparing it to the year before, compare it to what it was a few decades ago, a hundred years ago, what it looked like before the Industrial Revolution, and what it looked like before us.

This lack of historical perspective presents a problem for conservation because it causes people to overlook the massive devastation to fragile ecosystems caused by gradual changes over decades. That’s why research and perspective are so important and why books like this one exist — to help provide perspective so we can make well-informed decisions about what we do that impacts the wonderful world around us.