Читать книгу Wind Energy Handbook - Michael Barton Graham - Страница 46

In recent years, wind power forecasting has become very important economically. Wind plant operators have to predict their output as accurately as possible, from a quarter or half an hour ahead to 24 or 48 hours, depending on the marketing arrangements for the power produced. There may be financial penalties for under‐ or overproducing. As well as the actual forecast, an estimate of the reliability of each forecast helps the operator to decide how much power to promise in forthcoming periods. Consequently, increasingly sophisticated methods are now being used, with combinations of meteorological forecasts, often from more than one source, together with statistical methods including machine learning and ensemble averaging to weight the results of different methods and estimate the forecasting uncertainties. Forecasting has become a major topic in its own right, and is covered in more detail in Section 11.6.3.