Читать книгу New South African Review 2 - Paul Hoffman - Страница 38

There is certainly some evidence to support the Zanufication thesis: the liberationist and ‘exceptionalist’ ideology to which the ANC adheres; the blurred demarcation lines between party and state; the insidious relationship between the ANC and the business community; the overt hostility to much of the print media; the growing levels of corruption; and the frustrations building up over the distribution of land. But, as we have seen, there are also important aspects of the political landscape which differ from that of Zimbabwe – the strength of civil society, the degree of urbanisation, a robust liberal tradition, a liberal democratic polity and constitution, the political role of the trade unions and a relatively influential Communist Party committed to nonracialism. We should also note the role that South Africa’s much deeper integration in the global economy than Zimbabwe’s, and its aspirations as an emerging power of the ‘global South’, are likely to have in tempering any drift towards outright Zanufication.

Authoritarian trends are unmistakable, but our overall conclusion is that the Zimbabwean road is a possibility, not an inevitability. Of course it is possible that South Africa may yet follow an autocratic path that is unique in itself rather than one emulating the Zimbabwean ‘model’, one which is more complex, even chaotic and indefinable, in which the ruling party’s authoritarian impulses are contested by opposition parties, the media, civil society and by elements of the ANC itself. Indeed the ANC captures this confusing situation in microcosm as plunderers, and demagogues coexist in its ranks alongside those still committed to the ethos of service and sacrifice which informed the liberation struggle. In short, it may be that South Africa will develop an authoritarian politics resembling certain aspects of the Zimbabwean polity but its complexity is unlikely to be adequately captured by the all-embracing notion of Zanufication.