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“Moore’s law really is dead this time.”

Peter Bright (2016)¹

“The report of my death was an exaggeration.”

Mark Twain (1897)²

Few phenomena in the digital universe have had such a profound effect on information and communication technology as Moore’s law (named after Gordon Moore [Figure 2.1]). It can be stated succinctly in two different ways:

 “Transistor density on integrated circuits doubles about every two years.” – The Intel Corporation⁵

 “The size of each transistor on an integrated circuit chip will be reduced by 50 percent every twenty-four months.” – Raymond Kurzweil⁶

Figure 2.1 Gordon Moore in front of a photo of a projected and greatly enlarged silicon wafer containing many integrated circuits. Source: Intel Corporation³. “Moore once computed that if the automobile industry followed a similar doubling pattern as ICs [integrated circuits], cars today would get 100,000 miles per gallon, travel at speeds of millions of miles per hour, and be so inexpensive that it would cost less to buy a Rolls-Royce than to park it downtown for a day. However, a friend pointed out that the car ‘would only be a half-inch long and a quarter-inch high,’ and not very useful at those dimensions.” Source: Michael Kannellos.⁴

The doubling of computer central processing unit (CPU) speed and storage capacity every two years since 1970 has dramatically affected every type of digital technology. This doubling presents an exponential growth rate in computing and storage capacity that is astonishing for its longevity over more than half a century (see Figure 2.2). Consider any device that you use daily that has a digital processor or storage chip in it – a mobile phone, digital camera, notebook computer, large flat-screen television display, microwave oven, or any other device that can process or store digital information. The simultaneous miniaturization and exponential expansion of the processing power of these chips makes it possible for a mobile phone to include a music player, internet browser, video camera, and GPS location finder. Next time you use your mobile phone, consider its power as an information-processing device and think about the reaction of telephone inventor Alexander Graham Bell (profiled in Chapter 8) if he could see it demonstrated.

Figure 2.2 Moore’s Law Holding True to 2020. Source: Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie, “Moore’s Law Transistor Count”, Wikipedia. Licensed under CC BY 4.0⁸.

Dr. Yale Patt, a computer science professor at the University of Texas at Austin, addresses Moore’s law in his introductory lectures by asking the following question of his students:

What is Moore’s law about?

1 Physics?

2 Computer process technology?

3 Computer micro-architecture?

4 Psychology?

The correct answer according to Dr. Patt is d. – Psychology.⁷ His thesis is that Moore’s law has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Designers of integrated circuits (and their managers) at AMD, Intel, TSMC, and other chip manufacturers have psychologically adapted to the expectation that there will be a new generation of chips every 24 months with double the transistor capacity of previous versions. If Intel does not deliver new chips with this improved capacity, its executives know that AMD or other competitors will.

As a pattern of growth, few natural systems can sustain exponential doubling for long. Resource constraints, environmental degradation, or other natural limits inhibit growth. These limitations have long led critics to suggest that Moore’s law was unsustainable, but they overlooked that this is a human-created technology based on the fundamental properties of silicon, not an organic phenomenon. The technological implications of Moore’s law are not all sweetness and light. The notebook computer you bought two years ago is now worth less than half of what you paid for it – assuming that you can find anyone who would want to buy it in your community. The only real options are to donate it for use elsewhere or recycle the components. There is a planned obsolescence associated with Moore’s law that is very good news for chip makers, computer manufacturers, and software producers – and not such great news for consumers. We will return to this aspect of Moore’s law later, but it is worth contemplating in terms of developing a sense of critical literacy discussed in the preface.