Читать книгу The Digital Big Bang - Phil Quade - Страница 39

Scott Charney, Microsoft

An old adage warns, “He who hesitates is lost.” Put another way, speed is essential. Indeed, speed is most often viewed in a positive light, connoting everything from exhilaration (fast cars), to competitive advantage (faster stock trades), to greater efficiency (airplanes over buses). Yes, there may be drawbacks (“haste makes waste”), but forward we rush.

In information technology, speed is often synonymous with increased productivity. Moore's law, which noted that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years, permits us to process more data in less time. Faster transmission speeds, from fiber to 5G, give us access to larger datasets in less time. Machine learning and AI permit us to leverage these other technologies and promise decisions that will be both better and faster.

While this paints a rosy picture, there is another adage about speed, one that conjures up notions of risk. Although it may be true that “he who hesitates is lost,” we are often cautioned to “look before we leap.” That is, we need to slow down and be more cautious when making decisions.

So, should we in fact look before we leap, even if those who hesitate are lost? Which piece of conventional wisdom is correct? Clearly, quickly embracing new technology can yield terrific benefits, even if new risks must be managed at the same time. But can speed be cause for alarm?

Which adage is correct depends on context, and in this regard, it may be helpful to consider three different, albeit simplified, scenarios. The first involves credit applications in which older processes are made more efficient through modernization; the second involves unlocking new, transformative capabilities through the introduction of autonomous vehicles; and the third involves international affairs and the potential use of autonomous lethal weapons.