Читать книгу Complex Decision-Making in Economy and Finance - Pierre Massotte - Страница 14

What is missing today for the proper management of complex systems? Certainly, neither cultural factors nor tools are yet in place. Here is a list of some of the factors and barriers that need to be addressed by managers, consultants and educators at large:

 – An appropriate way of thinking. There is still an intrinsic difficulty found well spread among the human species to consider complexity natively. It is used to thinking locally as much as acting locally!

 – A culture. The knowledge and experience acquired by humanity allows us to develop certain faculties of the mind such as a critical sense, taste, judgment and discrimination. We cannot escape the constructivist grip of culture, which touches the very roots of our nervous system, perception and interpretation of the world; it escapes our control, exposes our consciousness, and finally acts on our human and sociological behavior (fear, opposition, adherence to change, etc.).

 – Scaling. While the notion of size is not in itself a relevant or determining factor when talking about complexity, the challenge remains to scale, increase or reduce the size of systems while preserving the dynamics of the interrelationships among the elements of the system. This is the transition to scale challenge. There are still too few studies and results for an appreciative and reliable engineering scaling approach, particularly in the fields of society and public policy.

 – Other types of intelligence as specified previously.

 – Some technological limitations. A number of issues and problems remain unresolved due to the lack of tools and approaches to resolve them in a computable time. These include: disaster prediction based on low “noise”, uncertainty control, precise control of chaotic systems, etc. Another level of limitations, one of learning (or deep learning), we do not know how to integrate common sense into our decision support systems (some readers may remember the famous CYC encyclopedic project of the 1980s) and the all-time notion of emotion. Similarly, at the problem-solving level, computers are often called upon, but without knowing whether applied to nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDSs) such as Navier–Stokes equations, whether they have solutions, and if so, whether accessible for calculation or reasoning and so on. Finally, at the behavior and evolution of the population level in general, we have analyzed the characteristics that intervene in decision-making processes; these characteristics such as altruism, comperation (competition then cooperation) or coopetition (cooperation then competition) are important, but, in terms of convergence, we cannot predict whether this or that solution is the most appropriate.