Читать книгу A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities - Pierre-Simon Laplace - Страница 3
ОглавлениеPART I.
A PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES.
| CHAPTER I. |
| PAGE |
| Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 |
| CHAPTER II. |
| Concerning Probability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 |
| CHAPTER III. |
| General Principles of the Calculus of Probabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 |
| CHAPTER IV. |
| Concerning Hope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 |
| CHAPTER V. |
| Analytical Methods of the Calculus of Probabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 |
PART II.
APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES.
| CHAPTER VI. |
| Games of Chance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 |
| CHAPTER VII. |
| Concerning the Unknown Inequalities which may Exist among Chances Supposed to be Equal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56 |
| CHAPTER VIII. |
| Concerning the Laws of Probability which result from the Indefinite Multiplication of Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 |
| CHAPTER IX. |
| Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to Natural Philosophy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73 |
| CHAPTER X. |
| Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to the Moral Sciences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 |
| CHAPTER XI. |
| Concerning the Probability of Testimonies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109 |
| CHAPTER XII. |
| Concerning the Selections and Decisions of Assemblies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126 |
| CHAPTER XIII. |
| Concerning the Probability of the Judgments of Tribunals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .132 |
| CHAPTER XIV. |
| Concerning Tables of Mortality, and the Mean Durations of Life, Marriage, and Some Associations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140 |
| CHAPTER XV. |
| Concerning the Benefits of Institutions which Depend upon the Probability of Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149 |
| CHAPTER XVI. |
| Concerning Illusions in the Estimation of Probabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .160 |
| CHAPTER XVII. |
| Concerning the Various Means of Approaching Certainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .176 |
| CHAPTER XVIII. |
| . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185 |
