Читать книгу Taming the Lion - Richard Farleigh - Страница 12

Cleanse yourself of any idea that it’s easy. You’re in for a difficult time. Like me, most traders and investors have had to learn this the hard way, at one time or another, by losing money and agonising over bad positions. By giving you this warning I’m trying to save you from that nightmare.

The market is much more difficult than you think. It acts like a huge super- computer as it effectively absorbs an unbelievable amount of information — more than any human being could fathom.

When you buy or sell in the market you are hoping that the current market price is wrong, that the super-computer is wrong. Now stop for a moment and think how incredible that would be. If you believe that the dollar will fall, what you actually believe is that the current price is flawed, even though it is the result of a huge amount of people dealing in a huge amount of money.

For that reason, when I am asked for my view on a currency or another market, I’m very reluctant to disagree with the price as it stands. I personally give the markets that level of respect — and I’ve been battling them with some success for a long time. Yet many people who lack any experience will happily put forward their view with an astonishing degree of unfounded confidence.

Don’t forget that these days there is intense analysis by funds and banks and that they still regularly get it wrong — often spectacularly wrong. So start with a degree of caution. Be like a lion tamer. The lion can be tamed, but only by maintaining a healthy fear of the lion.