Читать книгу Taming the Lion - Richard Farleigh - Страница 21

A great example of this is George Soros. He has been criticised because his massive selling probably caused the devaluation of the British Pound in 1992. In fact the resulting weaker currency and lower interest rates saved the UK economy, because they were more appropriate for the conditions at the time. The date (16th September 1992) is known as ‘Black Wednesday’ because the currency was pushed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), but in my view it should be renamed ‘White Wednesday’. That day is one reason that the UK has only five per cent unemployment, while Europe, which stuck with cripplingly high interest rates for way too long, has about ten per cent. The feeling was that Soros was a greedy speculator who made a billion pounds in profit, but in fact it has proved to be a very cheap price for the British, because the lower pound - and the resulting lower interest rates - allowed for a big improvement in the economy. If the man in the street knew how things worked, Soros would be seen as a hero, not a villain!

For this reason, many commentators are naïve when they criticise these price shocks and the speculators involved. It can be better to have wild swings in currencies and other prices than lots of people losing their livelihoods.

It was a similar case in the late 1990s, when Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir attacked currency speculators because they were pushing down the value of his currency. Again, speculation wouldn’t have worked unless there was a solid reason behind it. A few years later, the consensus is that the currency was too high for the economic conditions at the time.

The speculator is often just the messenger.