Читать книгу The Economic Indicator Handbook - Ричард Ямароне - Страница 10

The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index (ESI) shows the degree to which Street economists either under- or overestimate those top-tier indicators posted in ECO <GO>.

When the actual number exceeds the Street estimates, it's a sign that the measured performance of a particular economic indicator bettered Street expectations, implying the economy may be performing better than the pros believe. Conversely, lower actual values suggest weaker economic conditions compared to what the forecasters believe. The associated exhibit lists the most recent releases in the Bloomberg ECO U.S. Surprise Index and whether they missed to the up side (green) or to the down side (red).

Formal releases of economic data aren't the only incidents that move the market or may change the outlook of the economy. The daily events calendar is an extremely important tool used in the analysis of the economic environment. While there are rarely specific data or indexes revealed in the countless events that occur during any given trading session, there are nuggets of information in many of the conference calls or releases – the sharp analyst just has to know where to look.

Most analysts and economists know days in advance about what is on the docket regarding investor meetings, industry or bank-sponsored conferences, earnings calls, corporate updates, annual meetings, and special company announcements like a merger or acquisition. The Bloomberg Events Calendar in Exhibit 1.5 (EVTS <GO>) identifies one page of the thousands that exist on the terminal.

Exhibit 1.5 Events Calendar

Source: Bloomberg