Читать книгу The Economic Indicator Handbook - Ричард Ямароне - Страница 9

Once in the calendar on economic releases, right-clicking on any of the indexes reveals the Street expectations, as seen in Exhibit 1.2. Here we see the graphical distribution for nonfarm payroll estimates by 74 economists, as well as the average, median, high, low, and standard deviation. There is also a ranking of the economist for that indicator in the lower-right-hand corner, which is based on two years of contributed estimates.

Exhibit 1.2 Economist Estimates

Source: Bloomberg

Then, clicking again on an individual economist or firm reveals a chart of the forecasting history of that particular forecaster for that economic release (Exhibit 1.3), as well as the median and actual number. You can also select several economists at a time. Now we are capable of seeing just how good some are at the estimating game.

Exhibit 1.3 Economist/Firm Forecast History

Source: Bloomberg

And since we have the Street estimates for dozens of indicators – and history – we can plot to see how far off the experts as a consensus were with respect to the actual number. Exhibit 1.4 shows the Economic Surprise Monitor (ECSU <GO>), which contains a dashboard of the latest top-tier indicators and their associated postings (by date) and the amount that each differed from the survey median as polled by Bloomberg, divided by the survey standard deviation.

Exhibit 1.4 The Economic Surprise Monitor

Source: Bloomberg