Читать книгу Bangladesh Financial Sector - Syed Ali-Mumtaz H. Shah - Страница 7

Rapid economic growth has underpinned poverty reduction efforts. Real annual GDP growth averaged 5.8% during 2000–2009, up from 4.8% in the 1990s and 3.5% in the 1980s. The poor have benefited from economic growth as rural and urban poverty have declined. The stable macroeconomic environment and measures taken to open up the economy resulted in annual export growth of 17% in the 3 years up to FY2008, and substantial employment generation, especially in ready-made garments. Bangladesh’s economy exhibited resilience in the face of the global economic downturn as GDP grew by 5.9% in FY2009. The GDP growth rate in FY2009 revealed moderation in aggregate demand due to a slowdown in exports and remittance inflows and also underpinned by private consumption (about 75% of GDP) which rose by 6%. Exports rose by 10.3% in FY2009 despite the global financial crisis. Although growth in remittances slowed, inflows from that source still climbed by 22.4% to $9.7 billion in FY2009, which has reached the rural poor and helped finance the purchase of land and agricultural inputs. Furthermore, investment in irrigation, research, and extension, together with more liberal agriculture input and output markets, triggered a rise in productivity, especially in rice cultivation and fisheries.

Prospects for FY2010 will depend on some key assumptions. It is assumed that political stability will prevail, and that the Government will be able to move forward in fulfilling its development priorities, sustain its focus on prudent macroeconomic management, and deepen economic reforms. It is also assumed that the measures outlined in the FY2010 budget to accelerate annual development program utilization (streamlining project approval processes and raising institutional capacities in key line ministries) will be implemented, and that the private sector will invest more in infrastructure through the new public–private partnership scheme. It is further assumed that the Government will be able to mobilize adequate external assistance and improve revenue mobilization, and avoid crowding out the private sector through excessive bank borrowing. Growth projections also assume normal weather conditions.

Against this background, GDP growth is forecast at 5.2% in FY2010 as the global economic slowdown persists, with continued moderation in external and domestic demand.