Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 24

Once you understand what a perfect trade means, you can look for failures. What does it mean when a chart pattern fails? To answer that, I had to invent a new concept, which I call the breakeven failure rate or the 5% failure rate. Those two phrases are synonyms. All I did was count how many chart patterns failed to see price rise or decline more than 5%.

In a bull market, for example, I found that 18.8% of head‐and‐shoulders top patterns failed to see price drop more than 5%. If your cost of trading is 5%, then you'll know that nearly 20% of head‐and‐shoulders you trade, if you trade them perfectly and often enough, will fail to cover your costs.