Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 27

When I have cash I want to put to work in the stock market, I'll flip through 600 charts on my computer, looking for anything that interests me (that takes less than an hour unless I find something interesting). Figure 1.1 shows a weekly chart that caught my attention. Why?

Figure 1.1 The pattern at A and B leads to a strong move higher.

Before I answer that, let me say that I prefer to bottom fish for stocks. That is, I prefer to buy low and sell high. I'm more successful at bottom fishing than momentum trading (buy high, sell higher).

Ideally, a bottom fishing expedition will yield an investment that turns into a momentum play when the stock soars and continues well into the stratosphere.

Some will claim that bottom fishing is a risky play, and they are right. But I argue that momentum trading is even riskier. Only you can decide which practice is best suited for your trading style. I use both, but I prefer fishing because as my portfolio has grown in size, I don't need to trade as much. I can devote my time to living instead of playing video games watching candlesticks form on the 5‐minute scale.

Returning to the figure, the stock started out low on the left of the chart and climbed to the right, doubling in value. If you were to ride this chart like a rollercoaster, you might exit the ride and stumble around, feeling queasy.

When I looked at Figure 1.1, I wasn't thinking of buying the dip, but that's what I saw. Price moved horizontally at A (if you ignore the few downward price spikes, the bottom of the portion is reasonably flat) followed by a strong and quick plunge to B. After B, the stock recovered quickly to C and bobbled up and down, eventually rising into the clouds at D.

I put the chart aside and flipped to the next stock that caught my attention. Figure 1.2 shows what I found (weekly chart, again). My software (which I wrote) groups charts by industry so I can get a sense of how the industry is behaving. I had moved from advertising (Figure 1.1) to airline stocks (Figure 1.2).

Figure 1.2 A diving board on the weekly scale leads to the stock climbing strongly.

There's the same pattern shown on this chart!

Point A is a flat base, lasting a long time (over 2 years). A plunge follows, taking the stock down fast to B, and then it recovers. This time, the stock zipped up (B to C) but went sideways in 2016 for about 6 months (C) before taking off and flying to D in a nice straight‐line run that saw the stock triple in price.

The stock moved sideways again at E (another flat base, but shorter), dropped to F (not a fast drop), and soared to G. The EFG move is a pattern similar to the prior two (this chart and the prior figure), but not as clean looking nor as successful.

The pattern in Figure 1.1 happened in 2013–2014. Pattern AB (Figure 1.2) happened in 2013–2016, and pattern EF occurred in 2018. In other words, I'm finding the same pattern in different years, which is a good thing (potentially different market conditions). Flat base, sudden drop, and fast move higher: Could this be a winning setup that's worked for years?

After finding a number of these patterns, I hunted for those that failed to perform as expected. Figure 1.3 shows an example of a failure (weekly chart). Notice that the flat base at A started in late 2014, the same as the other two charts. Price moved horizontally at A, dropped swiftly to B, and recovered but only to C before it tumbled to make a lower low at D. After D, though, the stock did take flight and delivered (a pun on the package delivery service, in case you missed it), which was reassuring if you buy and hold but terrifying for a swing or position trader who bought before C.

I looked for other examples and eventually catalogued my results. The research led to a pattern I call a diving board. I hunt for it on the weekly scale, but I've noticed variations of this pattern on the daily charts, too.

Figure 1.3 This diving board fails to act as expected.

As you look at the three charts, there are differences and there are similarities between them. What's important to performance? Is it the length of the pattern, how far price drops after the flat base, the industry the stock is a member of, or the time of year (seasonality or even bull/bear market)? By looking at a number of charts (and with the help of this book), you can answer those questions and become a more successful trader.