Читать книгу Theorizing Crisis Communication - Timothy L. Sellnow - Страница 26

The PADM is in many ways an extension of Mileti’s framework and is informed by the larger body of research and theory in warning processes and decision making. Lindell and Perry (2011) conducted a comprehensive review of the PADM and noted that it had been applied broadly in three areas: (1) development of risk communication programs, (2) evacuation and modeling, and (3) adoption of long-term hazard modeling.

For example, following the Mount St. Helens eruption, Lindell and Perry (1987) used the PADM to assess the risk communication system. They examined a variety of warning channels, including face-to-face, mobile loudspeakers, sirens, commercial radio and television, NOAA Weather Radio, newspapers, and telephones. Multiple channels increased width of distribution. The more specific warning messages increased public response, as did more familiar sources. The more knowledge citizens had about protective responses, the more likely they were to respond to warning messages.

In terms of evacuation modeling, much of the research has examined the factors involved in evacuation decisions, including timing and preparation. Preparation involves both mental and logistic preparation. Both mental and logistic preparation contribute to the overall time interval, although these factors do not appear to be simply additive as they may occur simultaneously. Lindell et al. (2005) examined evacuation behaviors associated with Hurricane Lili, a 2002 storm that caused great damage to the Caribbean and Gulf Coast, to explore the degree to which the questions posed by the PADM varied by demographic factors. These included age, education, geographic location, and the type of physical structure. They also explored information sources and the larger decisional processes related to evacuations, including the timing of the hurricane evacuation notices and decisions and the time required to evacuate. The results generally supported the PADM’s propositions about hazard perception and decisional processes.

The model has also been used to guide inquiry into hazard adjustment promotion and adoption. Ge and colleagues (2011) surveyed Florida households to assess their expectations of participating in hazard mitigation programs for hurricanes, finding that mitigation incentive adoption expectations were related to the perceptions of hazard intrusiveness and, to a lesser extent, worry. They conclude that hazard managers will be more effective in increasing participation in mitigation promotion programs if they use messages that repeatedly remind people of the likelihood of severe negative consequences of hurricanes. Messages that illustrate the destruction and disruption, for example, may increase participation. These mitigation promotion strategies will increase hazard intrusiveness and overall perception of risk perception.

Other studies have explored the ways in which residents assess the cost of evacuations when facing hurricane threats. Shaw and Baker (2010) explored the relationship between perceptions of hurricane risks and the decision to relocate among Hurricanes Katrina and Rita evacuees. They found that time was an important variable, as perceptions of risk and damage fade, and, consequently, the willingness to pay to obtain protection through actions such as relocation also declines over time. The authors conclude that “results may be consistent with Lindell and Perry’s (2004) PADM, which suggests that information is combined with experience, stimulating actions, though the choice model used here involves only a small subset of features of the PADM” (Shaw & Baker, 2010, p. 184).

Heath et al. (2018) examined a petrochemical manufacturing community that faces chemical releases to assess whether PADM core risk perceptions predict protective action decision making. Data was collected at four intervals (1995, 1998, 2002, 2012). They concluded that perceptions of protective actions and stakeholder norms, but not perception of threat, predicted protective action decision making, such as intention to shelter in place. Interestingly, perceptions of a cartoon character, Wally Wise Guy, who advocates shelter in place, correlated with perceptions of protective action, stakeholder norms, and protective action decision making.

Lindell and Perry (2011) note that “there is considerable evidence that hazard experience increases hazard experience adoption, but hazard proximity and hazard intrusiveness also appear to play significant roles” (p. 14). Demographic variables are also important although the exact nature of their role is not well understood.