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An econometric model is a tool that helps economists forecast future developments in the economy. Econometricians study past relationships between variables such as consumer spending and gross national product, and then try to forecast how changes in some variables will affect the future course of others.

To make such calculations econometricians need an economic model, and a theory of how different factors in the economy interact. For convenience, economists use mathematical models, which are a set of equations that describe various relationships between variables. These models are used to predict future trends in the economy, and are called econometric models.

Actually, no econometric model is ever truly complete and absolutely reliable both as a whole and in details. Some variables cannot be predicted because they are determined by forces «outside» the model. For example, a reliable realistic model must include taxes collected by the government because taxes make the gap between the gross income earned by households and businesses and the net income (disposable income) available for spending. The taxes collected, in their turn, depend on the tax rates in the income tax laws. If econometricians wish to forecast economic activity several years into the future, they have to include the anticipated future tax rates into their model's information base. So, they are supposed to make assumptions about possible changes in future income tax rates, the monetary policy that will be carried out by the central bank, and many other such «outside of the model» (or exogenous) variables in order to forecast all the «inside of the model» (or endogenous) variables. Being incomplete, econometric models sometimes are far from offering reliable predictions.

Слова и выражения:

anticipate – предполагать, предвосхищать

calculations – расчеты

complete – полный, завершенный

course – курс

determine – определять

econometric – эконометрический

econometrician – эконометр

econometrics – эконометрика

endogenous – эндогенный (внутренний, присущий системе)

exogenous – экзогенный (внешний по отношению к системе)

forecast – прогноз; прогнозировать

gap – пробел, брешь

include – включать

incomplete – неполный

interact – взаимодействовать

predict – предсказывать

prediction – предсказание

reliable – надежный

variable – переменная

gross national product – совокупный национальный продукт

as a whole – (взятый) в целом

in details – в деталях

gross income – совокупный доход

net income – чистый доход после выплаты налогов

и иных обязательств

several years into the future – на несколько лет в будущее

information base – информационная база

Exercise 6

Answer the questions:

1. What do econometricians study?

2. What economic variables do they take into account while producing their models?

3. What is an economic model?

4. Why cannot some economic variables be predicted?

5. What economic variables are called exogenous and endogenous?