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2. Экономические учения
(Economics)
How Does Forecasting Work?
Оглавление1
An economic forecaster was known to have an horseshoe prominently displayed above the doorframe of his office. Asked what it was for, he replied that it was a good luck charm that helped his forecasts. But do you believe in that superstition? he was asked, and he said, «Of course not!» But then why do you keep it? «Well,» he said, «it works whether you believe in it or not.»
2
An econometrician and an astrologer are arguing about their subjects. The astrologer says, «Astrology is more scientific. My predictions come out right half the time. Yours can't even reach that proportion.» The econometrician replies, «That's because of external shocks. Stars don't have those.»
3
An economist is a trained professional paid to guess wrong about the economy. An econometrician is a trained professional paid to use computers to guess wrong about the economy.
4
Economic statistics are like a bikini, what they reveal is important, what they conceal is vital.
5
Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back window.
Слова и выражения:
argue – спорить, аргументировать
astrologer – астролог
astrology – астрология
bikini – бикини (тип дамского купального ансамбля)
blindfolded – с завязанными глазами
charm – очарование, чары
doorframe – дверная рама
external – внешний
guess – догадываться, строить догадки
horseshoe – лошадиная подкова
luck – успех, удача
prominently – на видном месте
proportion – пропорция
shock – удар, потрясение, шок
superstition – предрассудок
vital – жизненно необходимый
good luck charm – талисман, притягивающий удачу
come out right – «получаться», «выходить»
guess wrong – строить неверные предположения, догадки
Exercise 7
Answer the questions:
1. What did the forecaster have the horseshoe displayed for?
2. How often are the astrologer's forecasts correct?
3. Why can't econometrics reach that proportion of correctness?
4. How do econometricians use computers in their guesswork about economy?
5. What do bikini… Well, I never…