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Look at the ending you’ve written in your product success story. What are the most critical metrics your product would achieve if it were successful at changing people’s behavior in a sustained way? Think about outcomes that might take months or years to accomplish, ones that would make someone look at your product and say “wow.” Write them down.

In behavior change, long-term success metrics generally fall into one of two buckets: domain-related or financial (i.e., return on investment). The domain-related outcomes vary widely, depending on what exactly the product is intended to do. If you were working on a health-related behavior change product, your long-term success metrics might include biometric data or anything that could be measured through medical tests, like someone’s weight, blood pressure, or the level of nicotine in someone’s blood. There are some health conditions, especially in mental health, that don’t have a physical test, so the outcomes there might be something like changes in people’s scores on a depression inventory. Health outcomes might also include performance indicators, like how fast someone runs a 5k or whether they’re able to complete a memory test successfully after brain training.

What if your intervention isn’t about health? If your intervention focuses on financial behaviors, long-term outcomes might include balances in someone’s savings account or the percentage of employees who have opened a 401(k) retirement account. For education, long-term outcomes might be achievement levels on a standardized test or the percentage of learners who could successfully complete an applied task. For sustainability, it could be the number of meatless meals eaten per week or the pounds of trash diverted into recycling or composting. You get the picture.

The financial outcomes often include money saved by using the medical system less or better; for example, a successful intervention might have people using the emergency room less often but the pharmacy more, because they’re taking their medications as prescribed. Sometimes the financial outcomes include increased revenue because more customers are buying the product as a result of its success. In digital projects, a common success metric is having customers choose to use the digital channel to complete tasks instead of using more expensive resources like call centers. Defining exactly what the financial success metrics for a given product look like require you to know your industry and your client well.

As you write down what long-term success looks like, be as specific as possible. Don’t just write “blood pressure”; write “reductions in blood pressure” or “percentage of people whose blood pressure changes from being high to normal.” The more specific you can be, the better able you’ll be to get the right data to tell your story.

TIP LESS CAN BE MORE

Especially for newer products, a simple outcomes story may be more powerful than a kitchen-sink-style one. Amazon once sold only books; Google used to be just a search engine. Their compelling early successes gave them a platform to expand their purviews. Just like a minimum viable product focuses on the most essential features, your first outcomes logic map should focus on only a handful of truly critical outcomes.