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As I write this book in the final quarter of 2008 the world appears to have moved to the edge of the precipice of the worst economic dislocation since the great depression that began in 1929.

The causes have been argued over ceaselessly in the media, and politicians are beginning to pander to a general desire to accuse and punish those who can be held responsible.

In 2007 few so-called experts and commentators predicted the events that occurred during 2008 or that the world economy would be in this parlous situation but, nonetheless, here we are.

It is interesting how critically important medium-term international problems that topped the agenda at the beginning of 2008 have now been subordinated.

Nothing has occurred to reduce the threats of international terrorism and climate change but their prominence has diminished. It is as though there is a limit to the number of society changing events we are able to handle simultaneously. It seems that international terrorism and climate change must wait until we can reposition them in the socio-political landscape that will follow the current economic turbulence and the financial resources devoted to them are constrained until, once again, we can afford them!

To take a specific example; the US and British governments are moving towards the withdrawal of their military presence from Iraq. Has the task they set themselves been completed and the objectives achieved? Is it just that the mandate that legitimised the US and UK presence expired on 31st December 2008? Or has the cost of this entanglement simply become unjustifiable in the situation that now prevails?

And what of climate change?

Well you can probably hear the voices of those arguing that our reaction can wait for a couple years, can’t it?

In the face of economic Armageddon everything else is pushed from prominence. Priorities are fragile and mutable. They tend to be dominated not by the events we forecast but by those we fail to predict. Darfor, Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Mumbai, the Chinese Olympics; in years to come 2008 will be notable for none of these.

We might say that these are examples of politicians practicing management in turbulent times. The political horizon of expectation shrinks to the duration of the recession, military entanglements and capital expenditures fall victim to cost reduction programmes, tax revenues decrease and borrowing increases. Re-election becomes dependent on how the electorate perceives a politician to have confronted the fire that is now at everyone’s feet.

Having worked through the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s I do not find this to be unusual. In fact, institutional failure to predict the onset of a cyclical downturn or the bursting of an asset price bubble is as predictable as the media and governments turning to the premature recognition of the green shoots of economic recovery when gloom and disaster is all around.

Despite increasingly complex econometric models no one really knows what will happen other than the descent into recession is inevitable. How deep it will be and how long it will last are effectively unknowable. So those who call the bottom of the trend line and the onset of economic spring are false prophets, as were those who denied the possibility of the position we now occupy.

What can be said is that 2009 and 2010 will be turbulent. There will be false dawns. Big companies will collapse. (In 2007, who, for example, would have believed a prediction that Lehman Brothers would file for bankruptcy in 2008?) Many innocent, diligent, wage earning people’s lives will be damaged. Politicians and managers will be discredited, optimism will be sought and the managed world will seek leadership.

I believe that there is an important distinction between management and leadership. But, in this book, I do not want to confuse the theme by dwelling too much on the difference.

I think, however, that it is worthwhile declaring that I believe the capacity for effective leadership to be a rare attribute that cannot be realised by an individual simply because they happen to occupy a position of responsibility at a moment when circumstances demand a leader rather than a manager.

If leadership is an attribute present in a person, then a change in the prevailing situation to something turbulent will usually allow it to emerge. If no-one with leadership capabilities is available then managers remain responsible for dealing with the turbulence their organisation encounters, and trying to imitate the characteristics of past leaders while practicing the same managerial conduct is an inappropriate response.

In turbulent times artificial turning points assume an irrational significance. The turn of the year from 2008 (the year of dislocation) to 2009 (the year of hope), the inauguration of Barack Obama as President of the USA in January 2009, the northern hemisphere spring and the renewal it signified all added something expectant to the general sentiment.

But before any of this hope can become reality we must endure a bleak midwinter of economic discontent. This is a great turbulence, the like of which few have experienced and in which many people in positions of authority have little idea of how to act. This is a bad time for an individual with responsibility for the wellbeing of others to be at the bottom of the learning curve.

However, let me sound an optimistic note. Most companies will survive, economic growth will resume, some of the corporate sick will be healed.

There are positive actions that managers can take. They are rarely taught in business school and tend to fade from the managerial memory as the previous recession recedes.

I hope this book will remind some of you of some of these lost notions and that other readers will find renewed confidence from the knowledge that guidance is available.

Anthony Holmes

London, December 2008