Читать книгу Don't Fall For It - Carlson Ben, Ben Carlson - Страница 11

People often have a difficult time understanding the idea that correlation does not imply causation. Just because women were getting pregnant after their husbands received goat testicle implants does not mean that’s what caused them to bear children. The world is full of examples of two things that appear to be related because they move in concert with one another, merely by chance. The number of films actor Nicolas Cage appeared in is highly correlated with the number of people who drown in a swimming pool each year. The divorce rate in the state of Maine neatly tracks the annual consumption of margarine.^[22]

There’s an old saying that the data will tell you anything if you torture it long enough. Investor David Leinweber once ran a test to show how data can be manipulated. He found that the production of butter in Bangladesh could have been used to predict how well the US stock market would perform between 1983 and 1993. When butter production was up 1%, the S&P 500 would be up 2% the following year. And if butter production was down 10%, the S&P 500 would fall 20%. This relationship has no basis in reality but I’m guessing if you showed enough people the backtest, some of them would begin to believe they’d found a foolproof system to beat the stock market.^[23]

Brinkley’s client list was said to include former Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan and the 28^th President of the United States, Woodrow Wilson. Actor Buster Keaton even mentioned Brinkley and the goat testicle transplant in one of his movies in the 1920s. A US Senator from Colorado named Wesley Staley went so far as to say, “I wear goat glands and am proud of it,” in his public defense of Brinkley. A US Senator seriously said this out loud. To other people.^[24]

Unfortunately, there will always be charismatic charlatans like Brinkley around to take advantage of human nature. Certain people have the ability to convince others they can make the impossible become routine. Brinkley became fabulously wealthy from his practice and it was a boon for the town of Milford. Brinkley paid for a new hospital and put in sidewalks, a new post office, and a sewage system. He even bought new uniforms for the Little League team, who were aptly named the Brinkley Goats.^[25]

Not long after having his license revoked for practicing medicine in the state of Kansas, Brinkley decided to try his hand at politics by running for governor. The campaign was marked by all sorts of outlandish promises he couldn’t possibly keep – every county would have its own lake, free books, and free healthcare for all. The campaign was ridiculous from the word go and somehow, he still almost won!^[26] Being active in charitable causes, politics, or the local community are all wonderful ways to get people off your scent when bilking unsuspecting victims in a financial scam.

Fear and greed lend a hand in every financial mishap, and Brinkley’s tale is no different. The man himself was driven by greed and an inner desire to prove his critics wrong. It’s estimated Brinkley was bringing in more than $1 million a year during the Great Depression. This was an astronomical sum back then but even more outlandish when you consider average wages across the country were dropping like a rock, falling around 40% in 1932 alone.^[27] To satiate his greed, Brinkley preyed on the fears of other (mostly) men who were ashamed of their lack of sexual prowess, the sick and injured who were in search of a miracle, and the uneducated who didn’t know any better and simply trusted someone who sounded like they knew what they were talking about. Even his wife Minnie was under his spell until the very end. She outlived her husband by nearly 40 years and claimed until her dying day that successful goat gland procedures were still being performed in secret all around the world.^[28]