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How does change happen, therein lies the question – one that led to the development of the theory of change (TOC) approach. Developed in the 1990s at the Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change, the TOC was first articulated as a tool to evaluate complex programmes. At the heart of this development was the recognition that planning is important for a programme evaluation and the TOC emerged as a tool to attempt to fill this void. Subsequently the TOC has been used by programme developers as a programme planning tool.

A recognition that programmes are based on theory inspired the TOC approach. TOC however represents one step further in that it understands change is not always logical and emerging from neatly organised casual chain(s) of events.

Nowadays, one can say that the TOC is an approach to programme evaluation and programme planning. It has become common practice to start an evaluation with an elaboration of the TOC. For evaluators this has several advantages. Firstly, it helps evaluators ensure that their subsequent evaluation design ‘fits’ the programme they are evaluating. Secondly, it can improve the quality of communication with evaluation stakeholders. Thirdly, the TOC can be helpful when discussing the aims and objectives of the evaluation with funders and making sure that their expectations are realistic. Those who are developing programmes will often use the TOC approach to ensure that their programme is logically consistent.

The TOC approach normally starts by stating the desired change based on a number of assumptions that hypothesise, project or calculate how that change can be enabled. The assumptions therefore determine the strategies (activities) that can be used to achieve the change(s). The focus of theory-based evaluations is mostly on the evaluation of the assumptions. Assessing whether or not these are/were correct will lead to a greater understand of (a) whether change happened and (b) how.

This chapter will begin with the origins of the TOC, its main characteristics, what differentiates the theory of change approach from the logical framework approach, and how best to develop a TOC. After going over the advantages and challenges of using this approach, the chapter ends with a section on theory-based evaluations – what they are, the different types, and a description of these.