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Carol Weiss was instrumental in developing the theory of change approach as we now understand it. A good introductory article is:

Weiss C (1995) ‘Nothing as practical as good theory: exploring theory-based evaluation for comprehensive community initiatives for children and families’, in Connell JP, Kubisch AC, Schorr LB and Weiss CH (eds) New Approaches to Evaluating Community Initiatives: Concepts, Methods and Contexts. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute.

Blamey and Mackenzie provide a good overview of the difference between theories of change and theory-led evaluation in the form of realist evaluation:

Blamey A and Mackenzie M (2007) ‘Theories of change and realistic evaluation: peas in a pod or apples and oranges?’, Evaluation 13: 439—55.