Читать книгу The Failure of Risk Management - Douglas W. Hubbard - Страница 22

My objectives with this book are (1) to reach the widest possible audience of managers and analysts, (2) to give them enough information to quit using ineffective methods, and (3) to get them started on better solutions.

The first objective—reaching a wide audience—requires that I don't treat risk management myopically from the point of a given industry. There are many existing risk management texts that I consider important classics, but I see none that map the breadth of the different methods and the problems and advantages of each. There are financial risk analysis texts written specifically for financial analysts and economists. There are engineering and environmental risk texts for engineers and scientists. There are multiple risk management methods written for managers of software projects, computer security, or disaster recovery. Many of these sources seem to talk about risk management as if their methods comprised the entire subject. None seems entirely aware of the others.

The wide audience objective also means that I can't write just about the latest disaster. A reader picking up the first edition of this book in 2009 may think the risk I'm talking about is a financial risk. If I had written this just after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster of 2011 or more recent events, then risk might have meant something very different. But risk is not selective in that way and the best methods are not specific to one category of risks. Thinking about risks means thinking about events that have not yet occurred, not just last year's news.

Finally, reaching a wide audience requires that I don't just write another esoteric text on quantitative methods for a small community of experts. Of those, there are already some excellent sources that I will not attempt to reproduce. A couple of slightly technical issues will be discussed, but only enough to introduce the important concepts. So, I will spend very little time on well-developed methods in actuarial science or quality control in engineering. The focus will be more on where there are numerous competing methods and the highest levels of management such as ERM.

The last two objectives—to get managers to quit using ineffectual methods and start them on a better path—are also satisfied by a just-technical-enough approach to the problem. This book won't make most managers masters of more quantitative and scientific methods of risk management. I merely want to convince them to make a radical change in direction from the methods they are most likely using now.

To accomplish these objectives, the remainder of this book is divided along the lines implied by the title:

 Part One: An Introduction to the Crisis: This first chapter introduced the problem and its seriousness. Chapter 2 outlines the diversity of approaches to assess and mitigate risks and discusses how managers rate their own firms in these areas. Chapter 3 examines how we should evaluate risk management methods. Chapter 4 will show a simple “straw man” that can be the basis for developing a fully quantitative model. (This will also provide a way to imagine an alternative to current risk management methods as we go through a long and detailed criticism of them.)

 Part Two: Why It's Broken: After an introduction to four basic schools of thought about risk management, we will discuss the confusing differences in basic terminology among different areas of risk management. Then we will introduce several sources of fundamental errors in popular methods that remain unaddressed. We will list several fallacies that keep some from adopting better methods. Finally, this part of the book will outline some significant problems with even the most quantitative methods being used.

 Part Three: How to Fix It: This final part will introduce methods for addressing each of the previously discussed sources of error in risk management methods. We will build on the basic straw man model introduced in chapter 4. We will discuss the basic concepts behind better methods, including how to think about probabilities and how to introduce scientific methods and measurements into risk management. Finally, we will talk about some of the issues involved in creating a culture in organizations and governments that would facilitate and incentivize better risk management.

Throughout this book, I will offer those who require more hands-on examples sample spreadsheets on this book's website at www.howtomeasureanything.com/riskmanagement. Those who prefer the 10,000-foot view can still get a good idea of the issues without feeling dragged down by some technical details, whereas those who prefer to get more information can get specific example calculations. The website will also give all readers access to evolving risks, new ideas and a community of other professionals interested in commenting on those.

See this book's website at www.howtomeasureanything.com/riskmanagement for detailed examples from the book, discussion groups, and up-to-date news on risk management.