Читать книгу Disarmament and Decommissioning in the Nuclear Domain - Jean-Claude Amiard - Страница 27

The verification of nuclear disarmament is influenced by a multitude of factors. First, international politics and inter-state relations play an important role in the design of verification systems, determining which verification techniques can be used and how and when they can be applied. This leads to a compromise between different positions that may not necessarily represent the best technical solution to the various verification problems.

Even within a particular state, different national interest entities may disagree on interpretations and practical aspects of compliance. Some will view violations, or even ambiguities, as clear evidence of deliberate fraud, while others will interpret them as minor and unavoidable oversights or unintended consequences.

In the construction of nuclear verification systems, there is a necessary tension between the levels of intrusiveness and the need to prevent the disclosure of militarily or commercially sensitive information. In the early days of verification, this balance was oriented towards the protection of information, either through the use of national technical means alone, or through a limited number of on-site inspections. Subsequently, verification systems became more intrusive and on-site inspections have become an essential element of nuclear verification regimes, even at sensitive military facilities.

In the context of bilateral disarmament efforts undertaken by the United States and Russia, the potential benefit of fraud through misrepresentation is derisory since both sides have retained large arsenals of nuclear weapons. On the contrary, withholding weapons in small numbers during dismantlement could be a significant strategic advantage for states with limited nuclear arsenals. The case of South Africa’s total nuclear disarmament is a hopeful one [BOW 18].

The main issues that need to be considered when verifying the dismantlement of nuclear warheads, are counting and avoiding theft. To do this, it is necessary to ensure the chain of traceability and monitor the access portal to the storage site. Several technical solutions have been implemented (managed access, use of labels and seals, information barrier). During exercises between the United Kingdom and Norway (UKNI, United Kingdom–Norway Initiative), the unexpected result was that human factors could also have a decisive influence on the verification process and its results. This is likely due to the fact that the verification process is characterized by a constant tension between trust, perceived as an evidence-based judgment by informed actors, and confidence, perceived as the perception of intentions in a situation where evidence is lacking [BOW 18].

Some experimental simulations on disarmament verification have been carried out. The design of this simulation was the key element of the preparatory work that formed the basis of the research and required a considerable investment of time and resources. However, this approach offers a flexible way to recreate real-life challenges and problems in an artificial environment that can be, in part, controlled and targeted.

In these simulations, everything from the attitude of the host team, to the manner and speed with which information was provided, was a potential indicator of intentions and was incorporated into the research participants’ interpretation scheme. This intellectually demanding cognitive process encompassed the more objective and scientific, evidence-based approach that all participants aspired to experience. Since trust is indeed a crucial influence on the results of verification, it would be simplistic, even dangerous, to only view verification in terms of a purely technical nature, based only on scientific evidence [BOW 18].