Читать книгу Making Sense of the 2016 Elections - John A. Clark - Страница 11

The 2016 contest for the Democratic Party’s nomination was, in many ways, a textbook example of the importance of the invisible primary and the role of party elites in helping to steer the nomination process. Hillary Clinton entered the race as the early front-runner, just as she had in 2008 before she lost to Barack Obama’s insurgent candidacy. Almost as soon as she formally announced her candidacy in April 2015, Clinton had a mountain of endorsements from Democratic Party activists and elected officials. She also raised tremendous sums of money; before 2016 even began, Clinton had already raised over $110 million for her campaign.

Clinton’s overwhelming support among party leaders did not mean that she would easily claim the party’s nomination, however. As she had in 2008, she faced another difficult challenge from an insurgent candidate—this time Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders slowly gained ground on Clinton in the national polls during 2015, based largely on his appeal as the antiestablishment candidate. Indeed, Sanders was not actually a member of the Democratic Party at all. In Vermont, he ran for Senate as an independent; although once in the Senate, he generally voted along with the Democrats in Congress. Sanders’ liberal populist platform helped him to attract support outside the mainstream of the party and especially among younger Democrats. His viability as a challenger to Clinton was established by his ability to raise over $70 million during 2015 and by his success in the national polls, in which he received increasingly more support throughout the year leading up to the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Sanders still trailed Clinton by more than 10 points in the national polls, but polling indicated that he was tied with Clinton in Iowa and was leading her in New Hampshire, where the first primary would happen one week later.

In 2008, Clinton lost the Iowa caucuses to Obama, a result that helped prove Obama’s viability as a candidate and suggested the vulnerability of Clinton’s front-runner status. This time, Clinton was able to hold on to defeat Sanders in Iowa—a fact that was especially important given that she was defeated handily by Sanders a week later in the New Hampshire primary. The split results in the two early states did little to separate the two candidates, ensuring that the campaign would extend into the spring and beyond. Both Clinton and Sanders had strengths that allowed them to do exceptionally well in some states, but quite poorly in others. For example, Sanders generally won huge margins among young voters (often receiving more than 80 percent of the vote among primary voters who were 18 to 29 years of age) and also did well among white liberal voters. Clinton typically fared better among older voters (especially women) and minorities like African Americans and Latinos.

Sanders’ inability to make inroads with minority voters ultimately kept him from accumulating the number of delegates he would need to win the nomination. Clinton routinely received support from over 80 percent of black voters and between two-thirds and three-fourths of Latinos. This helped to offset the fact that she often trailed Sanders among whites. What made this particularly problematic for Sanders was that in many states, especially in the South, a majority of those voting in the Democratic primaries were nonwhite. Figure 2 shows just how significant this issue was. The x-axis of the figure shows the percentage of Democratic primary or caucus voters in each state who were white while the y-axis shows the percentage of the vote Sanders won in that state’s caucus or primary. There was a very strong relationship—for every 1 percentage point decrease in the share of white voters in a state, Sanders generally performed about two-thirds of a point worse in terms of the final vote share. This led him to do particularly poorly in states like Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Texas, and Maryland, where he received 33% or less of the vote.

On the strength of her showing among minority voters and by performing well enough among white Democrats, Clinton was able to build a small but clear edge in the pledged delegates who would formally choose the party’s nominee at the convention in July. Adding to her margin of victory were the so-called “super delegates”— party leaders and elected officials who also receive votes at the convention. While it was clear that Clinton would win the nomination, many Sanders supporters continued to protest the outcome, even as the Democratic National Convention began. The protests worried party leaders, who understood the importance of unifying the party before the general election campaign began. Ultimately, such unity was mostly achieved, thanks in part to Sanders lending his full endorsement and support for Clinton at the convention and asking his supporters to follow suit.

Figure 2 Percent of Democratic Primary Electorate Who Were White and Support for Sanders in 2016

Note: Figure created by authors using data from exit polls compiled by Ariel Edwards-Levy. Figure includes only states where exit polls were conducted.

On July 26, Hillary Clinton officially received the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, becoming the first woman to run for president as a nominee of one of the two major parties. The achievement was a testament to Clinton’s perseverance and skill during her career in politics, but it also meant that both implicitly and explicitly, gender would be a defining feature of the general election campaign.